边坡变形收敛稳定的通用位移判据：来自650个案例统计分析的洞见

doi:10.3724/1000-6915.jrme.2025.0877

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Abstract Slope deformation stability is a key concern in slope engineering. Unlike the safety control standards for anti-sliding stability, the complex and variable nature of slope evolution has so far prevented the establishment of a unified criterion to quantitatively determine whether deformation has converged to a stable state. To address this, a database of 650 slope cases is compiled and classified into three categories: deformation-convergent (145 cases), potentially unstable (340 cases), and failure (165 cases). Monthly (?Sm) and annual (?Sa) displacement increments during both stable and secondary deformation stages are statistically analyzed and compared. Risk characteristics of ?Sm and ?Sa are further examined using risk measurement indicators. The results indicate that: (1) For deformation-convergent cases, the mean ?Sm and ?Sa are approximately 0.04 ± 0.03 mm/month and 0.79 ± 1.29 mm/year, respectively. The vast majority of cases exhibit deformation rates below 0.1 mm/month (≈ 91.9%) and 1 mm/year (≈ 78.3%). In contrast, potentially unstable and failure cases display significantly larger ?Sm and ?Sa values, with data points dispersed across multiple orders of magnitude, showing clear differentiation from the deformation-convergent cases. (2) Based on statistical and risk analyses, thresholds of ?Sm = 0.1 mm/month and ?Sa = 1 mm/year can serve as unified convergence stability criterion. When ?Sm≤0.1 mm/month and ?Sa≤1 mm/year, slopes can be considered stable. (3) The reliability of this criterion is further validated through three representative cases of the toppling deforestation slope of Longtan Hydropower Station (stable), the left-bank slope of Jinping-I Hydropower Station (partially stable), and the Xintan landslide (unstable). The results provide a practical and scientific basis for slope stability assessment, risk early warning, and engineering acceptance.

Key words： slope engineering deformation stability statistical analysis displacement increment convergence criterion

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	CHEN Mingxi1
	KONG Jinghao1
	JIANG Qinghui2*
	ZHOU Chuangbing2

Cite this article:

CHEN Mingxi1,KONG Jinghao1,JIANG Qinghui2*, et al. Unified displacement criterion for slope deformation converging to a stable state: insights from the statistical analysis of 650 cases[J]. , 2026, 45(8): 2370-2390.

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https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/10.3724/1000-6915.jrme.2025.0877 OR https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/Y2026/V45/I8/2370

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