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| Shallow landslide susceptibility assessment considering multi-timescale extreme rainfall effects at the regional scale: Insights from the typhoon “Gemi”-triggered landslides in Zixing |
| CUI Hongzhi1, 2, 3, YANG Yange2, XIE Shanyao4, PEI Te5, MO Chujun2, KE Lijun3, FEI Kang3, JIN Jiaxu6, JI Jian4* |
(1. State Key Laboratory of Intelligent Deep Metal Mining and Equipment, Shaoxing University, Shaoxing, Zhejiang 312000, China; 2. Zhejiang Key Laboratory of Rock Mechanics and Geohazards, Shaoxing University, Shaoxing, Zhejiang 312000, China;
3. School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, Jiangsu 225127, China; 4. Geotechnical Research Institute, Hohai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210024, China; 5. Department of Civil Engineering, The State University of New York at Stony Brook, New York 11794, America; 6. School of Civil Engineering,
Liaoning Technical University, Fuxin, Liaoning 123000, China) |
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Abstract Typhoon-induced rainfall rainstorms are one of the primary triggers of shallow landslides in densely vegetated mountainous regions of China. Zixing City in Hunan Province, affected by Typhoon Gemi in 2024, is selected as a representative case. A probabilistic framework for rapid regional assessment (GIS-FSLAM-FORM) is developed based on the first order reliability method (FORM), integrating landslide inventories, multi-source meteorological observations, and high-resolution geospatial data. Two indices are introduced, including the antecedent rainfall contribution factor (Cpre) and the rainfall synergy deviation factor (Csyn). These indices quantify the effects of rainfall at different temporal scales on slope stability and failure probability (Pf). Under antecedent rainfall alone, slopes are predominantly stable or marginally stable. Pf is mainly concentrated in the low range (Pf＜0.3), and high-risk areas (Pf≥0.5) account for only 26.0%. After incorporating triggering rainfall, Pf shifts toward higher values across the region and high-risk zones expand significantly. Some previously stable slopes (POUS≥ 0.6) transition into potentially unstable states. For slopes with moderate to high initial stability (POUS≥0.3), probability of failure increases from low levels (Pf＜0.3) to high-risk levels (Pf＞0.5). In some cases, Pf rises increases sharply from 0.1 to 0.6. Approximately 69.1%–70.3% of these slopes exhibit significant increases in failure probability (ΔPf), indicating strong sensitivity to triggering rainfall. In contrast, only about 7.9% of slopes with low initial stability (POUS＜0.3) show notable increases. Under identical antecedent rainfall conditions, spatial variability and correlation of soil strength parameters increase the likelihood of slopes approaching limit equilibrium and failing under triggering rainfall. The study utilizes a probabilistic framework to elucidate the evolutionary mechanism of "pre-event cumulative weakening followed by event-triggered instability" in shallow landslides under typhoon-induced heavy rainfall conditions. This proposed framework provides a basis for landslide hazard assessment and risk identification under extreme rainfall scenarios.
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2026, Vol. 45 
