基于数据挖掘的隧道围岩变形响应预测与动态变更许可机制

doi:10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2017.0258

摘要
图/表
参考文献
相关文章 (15)

全文: PDF (671 KB) HTML (1 KB)
输出: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)

摘要隧道作为一个完整的系统工程，其已开挖段所揭露岩体的特征信息及其变形数据往往未被有效利用，而这恰恰是对该隧道后续施工有实际指导意义的。为此，基于数据挖掘理念，充分利用已开挖段揭露围岩的先验分布信息，基于高斯过程回归理论(GPR)，构建同一设计围岩等级区间段内岩体自然属性与变形间的映射模型，实现对当前掌子面围岩变形收敛值的响应预测。以此作为隧道施工工法变更与否的先导判据，综合超前地质预报解译数据、现场围岩亚级分类结果以及初期勘探资料等多源异构信息，进行围岩稳定性状况的交互式耦合分析，进而构建了隧道变更的动态评估决策与施工许可机制，以实现隧道开挖工法与支护参数的动态调控。此外，利用揭露围岩信息的概率分布统计，耦合GPR与Monte Carlo算法，对隧道设计等级区段内围岩变形的整体失效概率及可靠性评估进行了尝试性探索。

	服务

	把本文推荐给朋友
	加入我的书架
	加入引用管理器
	E-mail Alert
	RSS
	作者相关文章
	贺鹏
	李术才
	李利平
	张乾青
	许振浩

关键词 ：隧道工程, 围岩变形响应预测, 数据挖掘, 先验分布信息, 高斯过程回归, 动态变更许可机制, 变形失效概率

Abstract：Tunnel construction is a complete system engineering. The characteristics of surrounding rock information and the monitored deformation，which is significant for future tunnel construction，have not been used effectively. Therefore，Gaussian process regression was proposed to establish the model of mapping between the natural properties and deformation of exposed rock mass based on the prior information of distribution of excavated surrounding rock. With the mapping model，the value of convergence deformation at excavating face can be predicted，and the stability of surrounding rock can be evaluated in real time. The interactive analysis on the stability of surrounding rock was carried out with the predicted deformation value as the pilot criterion. With the calculated results of multivariate heterogeneous information such as the interpreted data from the advance geological forecast，classification of field surrounding rock and so on，the mechanism of dynamic permit of construction and design change were established. In addition，the probability of whole deformation failure of the certain section with the same surrounding rock grade was evaluated using the GPR-MCS algorithm.

Key words： tunneling engineering response prediction of surrounding rock deformation data mining prior distribution information Gaussian process regression permit mechanism of dynamic change probability of deformation failure

引用本文:

贺鹏，李术才，李利平，张乾青，许振浩. 基于数据挖掘的隧道围岩变形响应预测与动态变更许可机制[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2017, 36(12): 2940-2953.
HE Peng，LI Shucai，LI Liping，ZHANG Qianqing，XU Zhenhao. Prediction of deformation response in surrounding rock of tunnels and permit mechanism of dynamic change based on data mining. , 2017, 36(12): 2940-2953.

链接本文:

http://www.rockmech.org/CN/10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2017.0258 或 http://www.rockmech.org/CN/Y2017/V36/I12/2940

[31]	BIENIAWSKI Z T. Engineering classification of jointed rock masses[J]. Transaction of the South African Institution of Civil Engineering，1973，15(12)：335-344. " target="_blank">
[40]	张明. 结构可靠度分析——方法与程序[M]. 北京：科学出版社，2009：181-200.(ZHANG Ming. Structural reliability analysis：methods and procedures[M]. Beijing：Science Press，2009：181-200.(in Chinese)) " target="_blank">
[41]	张亦飞，程传国，张海丰，等. 公路隧道围岩的区间数组合分类法[J]. 岩土工程学报，2008，30(12)：1 915-1 920.(ZHANG Yifei，CHENG Chuanguo，ZHANG Haifeng，et al. Interval numbers-based integrated classification method for surrounding rock of highway tunnel[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering，2008，30(12)：1 915-1 920.(in Chinese))
[42]	曹晋华. 可靠性数学引论[M]. 北京：高等教育出版社，2006：7-25.(CAO Jinhua. An introduction to mathematics of reliability[M]. Beijing：Higher Education Press，2006：7-25.(in Chinese)) " target="_blank">
[6]	冯夏庭，王丽娜. 利用神经网络学习的岩体分级[J]. 东北工学院学报，1993，(3)：226-230.(FENG Xiating，WANG Lina. Rock mass classification by use of neural network learning[J]. Journal of Northeast University of Technology，1993，(3)：226-230.(in Chinese)) " target="_blank">
[5]	张清，田盛丰，莫元彬. 铁路隧道围岩分类的专家系统[J]. 铁道学报，1989，11(4)：65-68.(ZHANG Qing，TIAN Shengfeng，MO Yuanbin. An expert system for rock masses classification of railroad tunneling engineering[J]. Journal of the China Railway Society，1989，11(4)：65-68.(in Chinese)) " target="_blank">
[7]	冯玉国. 灰色优化理论模型在地下工程围岩稳定性分类中的应用[J]. 岩土工程学报，1996，18(3)：62-66.(FENG Yuguo. Application of grey optimal theory model in the stability classification of adjoining rock of underground construction[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering，1996，18(3)：62-66.(in Chinese))
[13]	聂卫平，徐卫亚，周先齐. 基于三维弹塑性有限元的洞室稳定性参数敏感性灰关联分析[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2009，28(增2)：3 885-3 893.(NIE Weiping，XU Weiya，ZHOU Xianqi．Grey relation analysis of parameter sensitivity of cavern stability based on 3d elastoplastic finite elements[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2009，28(Supp.2)：3 885-3 893.(in Chinese))
[14]	王辉，陈卫忠. 嘎隆拉隧道围岩力学参数对变形的敏感性分析[J]. 岩土工程学报，2012，34(8)：1 548-1 553.(WANG Hui，CHEN Weizhong. Sensitivity analysis of mechanical parameters to deformation of surrounding rock in Galongla tunnel[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering，2012，34(8)：1 548-1 553.(in Chinese))
[1]	中华人民共和国国家标准编写组. GB 50218—94工程岩体分级标准[S]. 北京：中国计划出版社，1995.(The National Standards Compilation Group of People?s Republic of China. GB 50218—94 Stand for engineering classification of rock masses[S]. Beijing：China Planning Press，1995.(in Chinese)) " target="_blank">
[9]	宫凤强，李夕兵. 距离判别分析法在岩体质量等级分类中的应用[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2007，26(1)：191-194.(GONG Fengqiang，LI Xibing. Application of distance discriminant analysis method to classification of engineering quality of rock masses[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2007，26(1)：191-194. (in Chinese))
[10]	曹文贵，翟友成，王江营，等. 山岭隧道塌方风险的集对分析方法[J]. 中国公路学报，2012，(2)：90-99.(CAO Wengui，ZHAI Youcheng，WANG Jiangying，et al. Method of set pair analysis for collapse risk during construction of mountain tunnel[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport，2012，(2)：90-99.(in Chinese))
[16]	赵洪波，冯夏庭. 位移反分析的进化支持向量机研究[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2003，22(10)：631-633.(ZHAO Hongbo，FENG Xiating. Study on genetic-support vector machine of displacement back analysis[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2003，22(10)：631-633.(in Chinese))
[20]	GIROLAMI M，ROGERS S. Variational Bayesian multinomial probit regression with Gaussian process priors[J]. Neural Computation，2006，18(18)：1 790-1 817. " target="_blank">
[21]	SEEGER M. Gaussian processes for machine learning[J]. International Journal of Neural System，2004，14(2)：69-106. " target="_blank">
[22]	臧秀平，阮含婷，李萍，等. 岩体分级考虑因素的现状与趋势分析[J]. 岩土力学，2007，28(10)：2 246-2 248.(ZANG Xiuping，RUAN Hanting，LI Ping，et al. Status quo and trends analysis of factors considered in rock mass classification methods[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics，2007，28(10)：2 246-2 248.(in Chinese))
[2]	中华人民共和国行业标准编写组. JTGD 70—2004公路隧道设计规范[S]. 北京：人民交通出版社，2004.(The Professional Standards Compilation Group of People?s Republic of China. JTGD 70—2004 Code for design of road tunnel[S]. Beijing：China Communications Press，2004.(in Chinese)) " target="_blank">
[11]	李术才，石少帅，李利平，等. 山岭隧道塌方风险评价的属性识别模型与应用[J]. 应用基础与工程科学学报，2013，21(1)：148-156.(LI Shucai，SHI Shaoshuai，LI Liping，et al. Attribute recognition model and its application of mountain tunnel collapse risk assessment[J]. Journal of Basic Science and Engineering，2013，21(1)：148-156.(in Chinese))
[15]	蒋嵘，李德毅，陈晖. 基于云模型的时间序列预测[J]. 解放军理工大学学报：自然科学版，2000，1(5)：13-18.(JIANG Rong，LI Deyi，CHEN Hui. Time series prediction with cloud models in DMKD[J]. Journal of PLA University of Science and Technology：Natural Science，2000，1(5)：13-18.(in Chinese))
[18]	李德毅，杜鹢. 不确定性人工智能[M]. 北京：国防工业出版社，2005：30-55.(LI Deyi，DU Yi. Artificial intelligence with uncertainty[M]. Beijing：National Defence Industry Press，2005：30-55.(in Chinese)) " target="_blank">
[23]	王明年，刘大刚，刘彪，等. 公路隧道岩质围岩亚级分级方法研究[J]. 岩土工程学报，2009，31(10)：1 590-1 594.(WANG Mingnian，LIU Dagang，LIU Biao，et al. Methods for surrounding rock sub-classification of road tunnels[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering，2009，31(10)：1 590-1 594.(in Chinese))
[25]	冯卫星，况勇，陈建军. 隧道坍方案例分析[M]. 成都：西南交通大学出版社，2002：163-165.(FENG Weixing，KUANG Yong，CHEN Jianjun. Case analysis of tunnel collapse[M]. Chengdu：Southwest Jiaotong University Press，2002：163-165.(in Chinese))
[28]	肖云华. 双峰隧道围岩稳定性非线性系统研究[博士学位论文][D].长春：吉林大学，2009.(XIAO Yunhua. Nonlinear systemic study on the stability of surrounding rock of Shuangfeng freeway tunnel[Ph. D. Thesis][D]. Changchun：Jilin University，2009.(in Chinese)) " target="_blank">
[30]	中华人民共和国行业标准编写组. TB 10003—2005铁路隧道设计规范[S]. 北京：中国铁道出版社，2005.(The Professional Standards Compilation Group of People?s Republic of China. TB 10003—2005 Code for design on tunnel of railway[S]. Beijing：Chinese Railway Publishing House，2005.(in Chinese)) " target="_blank">
[35]	朱永全，张素敏，景诗庭. 铁路隧道初期支护极限位移的意义及确定[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2005，24(9)：1 594-1 598.(ZHU Yongquan，ZHANG Sumin，JING Shiting. Concept and determination of limit displacements of primary support system of railway tunnel[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2005，24(9)：1 594-1 598.(in Chinese))
[3]	中华人民共和国国家标准编写组. GB 50086—2001锚杆喷射混凝土支护技术规范[S]. 北京：中国计划出版社，2001.(The National Standards Compilation Group of People?s Republic of China. GB 50086—2001 Specifications for bolt-shotcrete support[S]. Beijing：China Planning Press，2001.(in Chinese)) " target="_blank">
[4]	陶振宇，彭祖赠. 模糊数学在岩石工程分类中的应用[J]. 岩土工程学报，1981，3(1)：36-45.(TAO Zhenyu，PENG Zuzeng. Method of fuzzy sets in the engineering classification for rock masses[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering，1981，3(1)：36-45.(in Chinese))
[17]	冯夏庭. 智能岩石力学导论[M]. 北京：科学出版社，2000：239-241. (FENG Xiating. Introduction to intelligent rock mechanics[M]. Beijing：Science Press，2000：239-241.(in Chinese)) " target="_blank">
[19]	RASMUSSEN C E，WILLIAMS C K I. Gaussian processes for machine learning[M]. Massachusetts：MIT Press，2006：129-150. " target="_blank">
[24]	邬爱清，柳赋铮. 国标《工程岩体分级标准》的应用与进展[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2012，31(8)：1 514-1 522.(WU Aiqing，LIU Fuzheng. Advancement and application of the standard of engineering classification of rock masses[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2012，31(8)：1 514-1 522.(in Chinese))
[26]	王吉亮. 基于人工智能与三维数值模拟的乌竹岭隧道围岩稳定性系统研究[博士学位论文][D]. 长春：吉林大学，2009.(WANG Jiliang. Systematic study on stability of Wuzhuling tunnel surrounding rock based on artificial intelligence and three-dimensional numerical simulation[Ph. D. Thesis][D]. Changchun：Jilin University，2009.(in Chinese)) " target="_blank">
[27]	张永杰. 基于不确定性理论的隧道围岩稳定性及风险分析研究[博士学位论文][D]. 长沙：湖南大学，2010.(ZHANG Yongjie. Research on tunnel surrounding rock mass stability and risk analysis based on uncertainty theory[Ph. D. Thesis][D]. Changsha：Hunan University，2010.(in Chinese)) " target="_blank">
[29]	张文，陈剑平，苑晓青，等. 基于三维裂隙网络的RQD尺寸效应与空间效应的研究[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2012，31(7)：1 437- 1 445.(ZHANG Wen，CHEN Jianping，YUAN Xiaoqing，et al. Study of size effect and spatial effect of RQD for rock masses based on three-dimensional fracture network[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2012，31(7)：1 437-1 445.(in Chinese))
[32]	BARTON N. Some new Q-value correlations to assist in site characterization and tunnel design[J]. International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences，2002，39 (2)：185-216.
[33]	PALMSTROM A. Characterizing rock masses by the RMI for use in practical rock engineering. Part one：The development of the rock mass index[J]. Tunneling and Underground Space Technology，1996，11(2)：175-188. " target="_blank">
[36]	张志强，何本国，关宝树. 节理岩体隧道围岩稳定性判定指标合理性研究[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2012，49(1)：12-19.(ZHANG Zhiqiang，HE Benguo，GUAN Baoshu. A study of the criterion for the stability of a tunnel in a jointed rock mass[J]. Modern Tunnelling Technology，2012，49(1)：12-19.(in Chinese))
[38]	陈昌彦，王贵荣. 各类岩体质量评价方法的相关性探讨[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2002，21(12)：1 894-1 900.(CHEN Changyan，WANG Guirong. Discussion on the interrelation of various rock mass quality classification systems at home and abroad[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2002，21(12)：1 894-1 900.(in Chinese))
[8]	陈守煜，韩晓君. 围岩稳定性评价的模糊可变集合工程法[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2006，23(9)：1 857-1 861.(CHEN Shouyu，HAN Xiaojun. Engineering method of variable fuzzy set for assessment of surrounding rock stability[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2006，23(9)：1 857-1 861.(in Chinese))
[12]	朱•弗登博格，让•梯若尔. 博弈论[M]．姚洋校，黄涛译. 北京：中国人民大学出版社，2010：5-28.(DREW Fudenberg，JEAN Tirole. Game theory[M]. JIAO Yangxiao，HUANG Tao ed. Beijing：China Renmin University Press，2010：5-28.(in Chinese)) " target="_blank">
[34]	李晓红，王宏图，贾剑青，等. 隧道及地下工程围岩稳定性及可靠性分析的极限位移判别[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2005，26(6)：850-854.(LI Xiaohong，WANG Hongtu，JIA Jianqing，et al. Ultimate displacement discrimination of stability and reliability analysis of surrounding rocks of tunnel and underground engineering[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2005，26(6)：850-854.(in Chinese))
[37]	中华人民共和国行业标准编写组. JTG/F60—2009公路隧道施工技术细则[S]. 北京：人民交通出版社，2009.(The Professional Standards Compilation Group of People?s Republic of China. JTG/F60—2009 The technical rules for construction of highway tunnel[S]. Beijing：China Communications Press，2009.(in Chinese)) " target="_blank">
[39]	GOODMAN R E. RQD and fracture spacing[J]. Journal of the Geotechnical Engineering Division，1980，106(1)：191-193. " target="_blank">