镇康县滑坡易发性评价模型对比研究

doi:10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2021.0360

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摘要准确的滑坡易发性评价结果是滑坡风险评价的关键，对防灾减灾意义重大。为了提高滑坡易发性评价精度，基于地理信息系统(GIS)平台，将镇康县境内150个滑坡灾害点转换为栅格数据作为评价样本，选取高程、坡度、坡向、起伏度、地形曲率、剖面曲率、地层、断层、年均降雨量、河流、土地利用类型、道路12项评价因子，并通过独立性检验，构建研究区滑坡易发性评价指标体系，利用GIS随机提取70%滑坡栅格作为训练样本，分别采用单一评价模型(归一化频率比(NFR)、信息量(I)、确定性系数(CF))和耦合评价模型(归一化频率比–逻辑回归(NFR-LR)、信息量–逻辑回归(I-LR)、确定性系数–逻辑回归(CF-LR))进行滑坡易发性评价，对未参与训练的30%滑坡栅格进行频率比分析，用AUC值表示评价成功率和预测率，以此进行精度检验。结果显示，6种评价模型得到的滑坡极高易发区和高易发区频率比值之和占总频率比值均超过86%，成功率、预测率均大于0.75；NFR，I，CF分别耦合LR的模型，与单一模型相比具有更高的成功率和预测率，表明耦合LR的模型比单一模型评价精度更高。

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	张钟远1
	邓明国1
	徐世光1
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	张云波3
	付弘流4
	李忠海5

关键词 ：边坡工程, 滑坡易发性, 归一化频率比, 信息量, 确定性系数, 逻辑回归, GIS

Abstract：Accurate landslide susceptibility evaluation is of great significance for disaster prevention and mitigation. In order to improve the accuracy of landslide susceptibility evaluation，based on geographic information system(GIS) platform，150 landslide disaster points in Zhenkang County were converted into raster data as evaluation samples，and 12 evaluation factors including elevation，gradient，slope direction，relief amplitude，topographic curvature，profile curvature，stratum，fault，annual rainfall，river，land use type and road were selected and passed the independence test to construct the evaluation index system of landslide susceptibility in the study area. Using GIS to randomly extract 70% of landslide rasters as training samples，the single evaluation model(normalized frequency ratio(NFR)，information(I)，certainty factor(CF)) and the coupled evaluation model (normalized frequency ratio-logistic regression(NFR-LR)，information-Logistic regression(I-LR)，certainty factor-logistic regression(CF-LR)) were adopted to evaluate landslide susceptibility. The frequency ratio of the remaining 30% landslides was analyzed. The AUC value is used to express the evaluation success rate and the prediction rate for accuracy testing. The results show that the frequency ratio of high and extremely high susceptibility is more than 86% of the totle and both the success rate and the prediction rate are greater than 0.75. Compared with the single model，the models with NFR，I and CF respectively coupled with LR have higher success rate and prediction rate，which shows that the coupled LR model has higher evaluation accuracy than the single model.

Key words： slope engineering landslide susceptibility normalized frequency ratio information amount certainty coefficient logistic regression geographic information system(GIS)

引用本文:

张钟远1，邓明国1，徐世光1，2，张云波3，付弘流4，李忠海5. 镇康县滑坡易发性评价模型对比研究[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2022, 41(1): 157-171.
ZHANG Zhongyuan1，DENG Mingguo1，XU Shiguang1，2，ZHANG Yunbo3，FU Hongliu4，LI Zhonghai5. Comparison of landslide susceptibility assessment models in Zhenkang County，Yunnan Province，China. , 2022, 41(1): 157-171.

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http://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/CN/10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2021.0360 或 http://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/CN/Y2022/V41/I1/157

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