Abstract:The prediction of major natural and engineering disasters in the rock mass system such as earthquakes,landslides,rock burst and gas outburst is a major problem far from being solved by mankind. The short-term prediction of rock failure is its key scientific problem. The purpose of carrying out the short-term prediction competition of rock failure will not only stimulate the creation and innovation inspiration of scholars in multiple fields but also will promote the innovation and rapid development of instability destruction monitoring prediction theory,methods,technologies and instruments in rock and rock mass. In this paper,a detailed description of the first and second short-term competitions of rock failure is provided,including competition rules,scoring indexes consisting of prediction time,energy and location of damage,forecast theory,methods and test instruments used by each participating team,and final forecast results. At the same time,the latest theories and methods adopted by the participating teams regarding rock destruction prediction research,as well as the advantages and disadvantages of test instruments and the development direction of future research are comparatively analyzed. The results of the two competitions show that the theory,methods,and testing instruments of nonlinear rock mass mechanics- disaster rock mass mechanics,which are at the core of the destruction short clinical predictions,are still at an elementary level.
冯增朝,吕兆兴,赵阳升. 岩石破坏短临预报研究进展——岩石破坏短临预报竞赛评述[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2022, 41(12): 2522-2529.
FENG Zengchao,LV Zhaoxing,ZHAO Yangsheng. Research progress on short-impending prediction of rock failure——Comments on the competition of short-impending prediction of rock failure. , 2022, 41(12): 2522-2529.
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