(1. School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou, Gansu 730050, China; 2. Western Engineering Research Center of Disaster Mitigation in Civil Engineering of Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou, Gansu 730050, China)
Abstract：Under the influence of global warming and increased humidity, the frequency and intensity of extreme summer climate events on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have significantly impacted the stability of permafrost slopes. However, the synergistic mechanisms of combined high temperatures and heavy rainfall on permafrost slope stability remain inadequately studied. To elucidate the triggering mechanisms of summer warm-wet compound extreme climates on permafrost slope collapse disasters, this study conducted comparative experiments using a self-developed dual-controlled (bottom plate-atmosphere) environmental simulation system for cold regions. Three climatic scenarios were examined: normal climate mode, single extreme rainfall, and compound warming and humidifying mode. The hydrothermal-deformation response characteristics of permafrost slopes under these climatic conditions were quantitatively analyzed. The results indicate that summer rainfall induces short-term cooling in the shallow layers of permafrost slopes, while convective heat transfer from infiltrating rainwater accelerates warming in deeper soil layers. Under conditions of single extreme rainfall, thermal erosion of ground ice intensifies, resulting in an increase in toe displacement and collapse area by 22.6% and 100%, respectively, compared to normal climate conditions. Under compound extreme climate conditions, elevated temperatures further accelerate permafrost warming, leading to ground ice melting and the formation of deep, water-rich softening zones. The cumulative toe displacement (148 mm) and collapse area (0.8 m2) increased by 11% and 33%, respectively, compared to single extreme rainfall conditions. Across different climate modes, the severity of slope hydrothermal disasters exhibited a spatial pattern of toe＞middle slope＞crest. The development of slope cracks and the scale of failure followed the order: compound warming and humidifying mode＞single extreme humidifying mode＞normal condition mode, confirming the amplifying effect of compound extreme climates on slope disasters. This study provides a scientific basis for understanding the formation mechanisms of thaw-induced landslide disasters in permafrost slopes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under extreme climate change and supports decision-making for disaster prevention and mitigation.
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2026, Vol. 45 
