复合厚硬顶板结构演化规律及水力压裂结构调控防冲机制

doi:10.3724/1000-6915.jrme.2026.0086

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摘要

复合厚硬顶板是深部煤矿开采中诱发冲击地压的重要因素，掌握复合厚硬顶板结构演化规律并采取针对性的调控措施是精准防控冲击地压的关键。以门克庆煤矿为工程背景，采用理论分析、数值模拟、现场试验等方法，掌握复合厚硬顶板结构演化规律并提出结构调控策略，剖析不同层位压裂的覆岩运移特征，厘清分层压裂顺序对裂缝扩展的影响，综合评估不同压裂层位的结构调控效果。研究结果表明：复合厚硬顶板结构演化呈低位破断–高位悬顶、高位变形–低位承载、高低位联动破断的三阶段特征；微震高能事件呈周期性空间簇集–时序突增的特征，且高位顶板更显著、致灾性更强；基于冲击致灾链三环节分析提出结构调控源头防灾策略。压裂可有效弱化相应层位岩层完整性，缩短初次及周期破断步距；高位厚硬顶板对覆岩结构运移的控制作用大于低位厚硬顶板，冲击地压防治的关键层位为高位厚硬顶板，低位厚硬顶板调控可增强防治效果。低位顶板先压裂可弱化高位顶板垂向约束并释放水平应力，降低裂缝起裂及扩展阻力；高位顶板先压裂增强低位顶板垂向约束并抬升水平应力，提高裂缝起裂及扩展阻力；压裂调控优选先低后高的层位顺序。由未压裂向高位压裂、高低位联合压裂转变时，高能级事件频次及占比均持续降低，低能级事件频次先升后降、占比持续升高，微震时序集中性及强度持续降低；高位厚硬顶板压裂是控制覆岩破裂尺度及释能规律的关键，增加低位压裂可进一步提升能量分散释放程度；支架压力依次呈高水平–持续强来压、中高水平–弱周期来压、低水平–弱周期来压的特征，地表沉降量及沉降速率显著增大。研究成果为复合厚硬顶板型冲击地压防控提供科学依据。

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	张随林
	张俊文*

关键词 ：采矿工程, 复合厚硬顶板, 结构演化规律, 水力压裂, 结构调控, 冲击地压

Abstract：To address the low accuracy of tunnel water-inrush prediction under complex geological conditions and the difficulty in capturing the nonlinear relationships among disaster-inducing factors, an intelligent prediction framework driven by ensemble learning is proposed. Based on a review of 249 documented water-inrush disaster cases in China and abroad, 22 disaster-inducing factors were selected. The synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) was employed to overcome the class imbalance of the minority-class data, and principal component analysis (PCA) combined with K-means clustering was used to establish a hazard assessment system. A stacked generalization (SG) strategy was then adopted to integrate a random forest (RF) model and a backpropagation neural network (BPNN) to construct the prediction model, and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was further introduced to identify the key disaster-inducing factors. The results show that: (1) By exploiting the complementary error characteristics between the base learners, the SG model achieves a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.98, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.68 and a mean square error (MSE) of 0.87, and its overall prediction performance and generalization ability are superior to those of a single base learner. (2) For major water-inrush cases with water-inflow volumes exceeding 300 m3/(d•m), the relative prediction error of the SG model remains stably within 10%, which effectively reduces the prediction fluctuations of a single base learner in the high-flow range. (3) Based on the initial weights obtained from the RF model and the correction made by engineering judgment, the AHP identifies the hydraulic conductivity, adverse geological conditions, geological structure, negative landform and groundwater occurrence conditions as the five core disaster-inducing factors, with a cumulative weight of more than 48.56%. These findings provide a relatively reliable technical approach for water-inrush disaster prevention and early warning in underground engineering.

Key words： mining engineering composite thick and hard roof structural evolution law hydraulic fracturing structural control rockburst

引用本文:

张随林，张俊文*. 复合厚硬顶板结构演化规律及水力压裂结构调控防冲机制[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2026, 45(11): 3420-3440.
ZHANG Suilin, ZHANG Junwen*. Structural evolution of composite thick-hard roofs and rockburst control mechanism by hydraulic-fracturing-induced structural regulation#br#. , 2026, 45(11): 3420-3440.

链接本文:

https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/CN/10.3724/1000-6915.jrme.2026.0086 或 https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/CN/Y2026/V45/I11/3420

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