(1. State Key Laboratory for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Explosion and Impact，PLA University of Science and Technology，Nanjing，Jiangsu 210007，China；2. Research Center of Geotechnical and Structural Engineering，
Shandong University，Jinan，Shandong 250061，China)
Abstract：During the operation of salt rock underground gas storages，ground settlement would be generated due to the volume shrinkage of salt rock caverns，and that would made a negative impact on the facilities on the ground(such as buildings，bridges，roadbed，etc.). In order to assess the impact，the method for calculating the failure probability of ground settlement in the area of salt rock underground gas storage was established. Firstly，the volume shrinkage of the salt rock caverns was obtained by numerical calculation. Then the SRAKA SCHOBER mining method was used to obtain the surface settlement caused by the volume shrinkage，and the performance function of the risk was established. Finally，the failure risk probability of ground settlement can be calculated by Monte Carlo method based on random variables. The method was applied to the Jintan underground gas storage in salt rock，the impact of the facilities on the ground settlement was effectively accessed，and the theoretical basis for the safety control of the salt mine zone was also provided.
张 宁1，张强勇2，向 文2，李术才2，贾 超2，刘 健2. 盐岩地下储气库地表沉降风险失效概率的计算分析[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2012, 31(s2): 3757-3762.
ZHANG Ning1，ZHANG Qiangyong2，XIANG Wen2，LI Shucai2，JIA Chao2，LIU Jian2. CALCULATION AND ANALYSIS FOR FAILURE RISK PROBABILITY OF GROUND SETTLEMENT ON AREA OF SALT ROCK UNDERGROUND GAS STORAGE. , 2012, 31(s2): 3757-3762.
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2012, Vol. 31 
