Abstract：Because there are defects such as fracture and cavity in the warm frozen soil，and their distributions are random，the elastic moduli and strengths are still uncertain；and they will be stochastic variables submitted to one of probability distribution，even if the temperature of frozen soil is the same. To solve the problem mentioned above，the potential elastic modulus and strength distribution laws of warm frozen soil are analyzed systematically by using a large number of test data. The result shows that normal and logarithmic-normal distribution can describe probability distribution law of elastic modulus of warm frozen soil well；and Weibull distribution could reflect probability distribution law of its strength better. Finally，it is found that the strength of warm frozen soil is submitted to Weibull distribution；and reliability analysis of strength of warm frozen soil is analyzed.
