强震山区地震滑坡发生概率研究——以九寨沟国家地质公园为例

doi:10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2020.0298

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摘要地震滑坡危险性评价是强震山区风险评价和防灾减灾的重要组成部分。以2017年Mw 6.5九寨沟地震诱发的国家地质公园内1 022处滑坡为样本数据和r.slopeunits软件划分的1 234个斜坡单元为评价单元，选取地震动峰值加速度(PGA)为触发因子及12项地形地貌、地质和水文因子为滑坡影响因素，采用贝叶斯概率方法与广义加性统计模型，获取了8次关键历史地震(1933～2017年)情景下的滑坡响应发生概率均值和不确定性(95%可信区间)。10次交叉验证结果表明以2017年地震滑坡建立的初始模型空间预测精度AUCROC平均值高达0.93，使得其余7次地震动下的滑坡响应模拟结果具有可靠性；PGA为研究区地震滑坡的显著影响因子，滑坡发生概率与PGA之间存在明显的正相关性，此外高概率区主要沿沟谷呈带状分布。为地震滑坡危险性综合评价提供了新思路和新方法，研究结果对该地区潜在地震滑坡概率的预测和震后快速评估具有一定的参考价值。

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	罗路广
	裴向军
	黄润秋

关键词 ：边坡工程, 地震滑坡, 历史地震, 广义加性统计模型, 发生概率, 斜坡单元

Abstract：The hazard assessment of earthquake-triggered landslides(ETLs) is an extremely crucial component of risk assessment and geohazard prevention and reduction in strong seismic mountainous areas. 1 022 co-seismic landslide polygons in the Jiuzhaigou National Geopark triggered by the 2017 Jiuzhaigou Mw 6.5 earthquake were selected as the data sample and 1 234 slope units were divided by the r.slopeunits software as the modelling units. Selecting the peak ground acceleration(PGA) and 12 topographic，geological and hydrological parameters as the selected triggering factor and the conditioning factors of ETLs respectively，the mean landslide occurrence probability and uncertainty(95% credible interval) under eight key historical earthquake cases during the period between 1933 and 2017 were determined based on the Bayesian probability method and generalized additive model. The 10-fold cross-validation results of the initial model built with the landslides triggered by the 2017 earthquake show that the average AUCROC value，representing the spatial prediction capability of the model，arrives to as much as 0.93，indicating the reliability of the landslide occurrence probability simulation results corresponding to the other seven earthquake cases. PGA plays a dominant role leading to the occurrence of ETLs in the study area and the landslide probability has a clear positive correlation with PGA. The overall high landslide probability area is distributed in a long belt shape along the valleys. This paper provides a new method and approach for comprehensive hazard assessment of ETLs and the results can be reference for the prediction of the probability of future ETLs and quick assessment after earthquake for the study area.

Key words： slope engineering earthquake-triggered landslides historical earthquake generalized additive statistical model occurrence probability slope unit

引用本文:

罗路广，裴向军，黄润秋. 强震山区地震滑坡发生概率研究——以九寨沟国家地质公园为例[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2020, 39(10): 2079-2093.
LUO Luguang，PEI Xiangjun，HUANG Runqiu. Earthquake-triggered landslide occurrence probability in strong seismically mountainous areas：a case study of Jiuzhaigou National Geopark. , 2020, 39(10): 2079-2093.

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http://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/CN/10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2020.0298 或 http://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/CN/Y2020/V39/I10/2079

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