Seismic landslide hazard based on the dual-factor optimized Newmark model: A case study of Jiuzhaigou in strong earthquake mountainous area
LUO Luguang1, PEI Xiangjun2*, LU Yulong1, ZHU Ling3, CUI Shenghua2, XIAO Yongjun1, LIANG Yufei2
(1. School of Earth Sciences and Spatial Information Engineering, Hunan University of Science and Technology, Xiangtan, Hunan 411201, China; 2. State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu, Sichuan 610059, China; 3. School of Geosciences and Info-Physics,
Central South University, Changsha, Hunan 410083, China)
Abstract：Jiuzhaigou is located in the central segment of China′s North-South Seismic Belt, an area characterized by dense faults and intense tectonic activity, making it a typical high-risk mountainous region susceptible to strong earthquakes. Conducting high-precision back-analysis of historical earthquake-induced landslide (EQIL) hazards and predicting potential EQILs in this region can provide a scientific basis for pre-earthquake risk prevention and post-earthquake emergency response. Using the 2017 Ms 7.0 Jiuzhaigou earthquake as a case study, the spatial patterns of EQILs through detailed field investigations and interpretation of multi-source remote sensing images were analyzed systematically. To address the limitations of the traditional Newmark model in characterizing key parameters, we integrated the spatial heterogeneity of geotechnical strength due to fault perturbations and the topographic amplification effects of ground motion parameters to develop a dual-factor optimized Newmark displacement model. Validation results using actual landslide data from the Jiuzhaigou Ms 7.0 earthquake demonstrated that the accuracy (AUC = 0.827) and spatial rationality of the optimized model significantly surpass those of the traditional method (AUC = 0.738). Moreover, by incorporating ground motion parameters from seven historical earthquakes since the 20th century and the peak ground acceleration data corresponding to a 10% exceedance probability over 50 years, as specified in the fifth-generation ground motion zonation map of China, the back-analysis and prediction of landslide susceptibility under multiple seismic scenarios were conducted. This revealed that the spatial distribution of EQILs is jointly influenced by ground motion, topography, and geology. The comprehensive evaluation method for seismic landslide hazards proposed in this study is designed for the complex environment of mountainous areas prone to strong earthquakes and can provide scientific and technological support for geological disaster risk management and the safety of major engineering projects in Jiuzhaigou and similar regions along the eastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.
罗路广1，裴向军2*，鲁玉龙1，朱 凌3，崔圣华2，肖拥军1，梁玉飞2. 基于双因子优化Newmark模型的地震滑坡危险性研究——以强震山区九寨沟为例[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2026, 45(9): 2731-2748.
LUO Luguang1, PEI Xiangjun2*, LU Yulong1, ZHU Ling3, CUI Shenghua2, XIAO Yongjun1, LIANG Yufei2. Seismic landslide hazard based on the dual-factor optimized Newmark model: A case study of Jiuzhaigou in strong earthquake mountainous area. , 2026, 45(9): 2731-2748.
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