“阶跃式”滑坡位移预测及阈值分析的ARMA-(LASSO-ELM)-Copula模型

doi:10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2016.1542

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Abstract

The essential parts of landslide displacement prediction are the improvement of prediction accuracy and threshold computation. Based on the existed research results，an ARMA-LASSO-ELM-Copula model to predict the displacement is constructed in this research. A typical step-like landslide namely Baishuihe landslide is selected for case study in this paper. First，the ACF in ARMA model is selected to investigate the seasonal patterns of monthly precipitation and reservoir water levels. The PPMCC is also selected to analyze the data of triggering factors(e.g.，precipitation and water reservoir levels). The autocorrelation between the current value and the lagged historic values are computed. Second，all positive lagged triggering factors are selected as inputs of the prediction model. An ELM-Copula prediction model is used to predict the monthly increment displacement. The cumulative displacement can be obtained from the accumulation of the predicted increment values. Last，the best performing Copula model is selected based on the triggering factor values and predicted increment displacement. The joint distribution function is constructed to extract the optimal thresholds. Numerical results indicate the LASSO-ELM offers the better prediction accuracy in comparison with SVR，NN，ELM，and etc. The Gumbel-Hougaard Copula function can better describe the joint distribution between triggering factors and predicted displacement values. The threshold of triggering factors and the value-at-risk of displacement can be computed from the selected Copula model.

Key words： slope engineering landslide displacement prediction seasonality pattern ARMA LASSO-ELM Gumbel-Hougaard copula threshold computation

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	Articles by authors
	LI Huajin1
	XU Qiang1
	HE Yusen2
	ZHU Xing1

Cite this article:

LI Huajin1,XU Qiang1,HE Yusen2, et al. An ARMA-(LASSO-ELM)-Copula framework for landslide displacement prediction and threshold computing of the displacement of step-like landslides[J]. , 2017, 36(S2): 4075-4084.

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https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2016.1542 OR https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/Y2017/V36/IS2/4075

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