基于变形速率分解的阶跃型滑坡预测——以呷爬滑坡为例

doi:10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2022.0424

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Abstract It is a crucial work in the research of landslide deformation status and hazard assessment to predict the displacement of step-type landslides. Generally，the research of step prediction is stationary fluctuation signal. The deformation rate decomposition method based on the step motion characteristics of landslide provides a new idea of step landslide signal decomposition in nonlinear deformation stage. Taking Gapa landslide as an example，the deformation rate data is obtained by signal differential and smoothing method of discrete wavelet transform(DWT). Based on the step motion characteristics of landslide，the deformation rate data is decomposed into small-scale fluctuation items determined by external inducers and large-scale trend items determined by internal control factors，in which the deformation rate trend signal is predicted by Inverse logistic function model(ILF) with added oscillation function. The deformation state of landslide is judged by curvature extreme value method. Deformation rate fluctuation term signals were predicted by constructing nonlinear mapping models using long short term memory LSTM，with rainfall and water level as evoked inputs，and the prediction results of trend term as control inputs. The prediction results show that the decomposition model based on the rate of deformation is more accurate than the traditional displacement fitting decomposition model for the non-linear process data of the Gapa Landslide，and its ability to map external factors is stronger. Therefore，deformation rate decomposition is an effective idea for prediction based on step motion mechanism，which solve the problem of step landslide prediction in nonlinear deformation stage.

Key words： slope engineering step-type landslide prediction deformation rate decomposition inverse Logistic function model long and short term memory neural network Gapa landslide

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	Articles by authors
	XING Baoyin1
	ZHANG Weiyi1
	ZHANG Guangcheng1
	ZHANG Shishu2
	LIU Zhongxu2
	ZENG Xin1
	ZHENG Zihan1

Cite this article:

XING Baoyin1,ZHANG Weiyi1,ZHANG Guangcheng1, et al. Prediction of step-type landslides based on deformation rate decomposition—#br# a case study of Gapa landslide[J]. , 2023, 42(3): 685-697.

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http://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2022.0424 OR http://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/EN/Y2023/V42/I3/685

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