|
|
|
| Mechanism analysis of winter landslides triggered by the “butterfly swarm effect” in the Wumeng Mountainous Region from the landslide in Jinping Village，Junlian County，Sichuan Province |
| GONG Tao1, 2, 3, 4, QIAN Jiangpeng2, 3, 4, ZHANG Ji2, 3, 4, XIANG Mingzhi2, 3, HUANG Yuanbin5, LIU Tao2, 3, 4, ZHANG Xianlin2, 3, 4, ZHANG Chuan5, WU Ning?an2, 3, 4, HUANG Li5, ZHANG Weijun5#br# |
(1. Key Laboratory of Transportation Tunnel Engineering of Ministry of Education, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610031, China; 2. The 1st Geological Brigade of Sichuan, Chengdu, Sichuan 610071, China; 3. Sichuan Institute of Geological Engineering Investigation Group Co., Ltd., Chengdu, Sichuan 610071, China; 4. Technology Innovation Center
for Geological Disaster Prevention and Ecological Restoration in Western China, Ministry of Natural Resources,
Chengdu, Sichuan 610071, China; 5. The 12th Geological Brigade of Sichuan, Yibin, Sichuan 644002, China)
|
|
|
|
Abstract On February 8, 2025, a significant landslide occurred in Jinping Village, Mu′ai Town, Junlian County, Yibin City, Sichuan Province, under winter conditions without heavy rainfall or seismic activity. This disaster resulted in 10 fatalities and 19 missing persons, igniting widespread public discourse regarding the formation mechanisms of this landslide and the potential for winter to be a high-incidence period for landslides in the Wumeng Mountainous Region. In response, a multi-source data fusion analysis method was employed, integrating field geological surveys, historical disaster investigations, airborne LiDAR terrain interpretation, time series InSAR surface deformation monitoring, and discrete element numerical simulation techniques. The study comprehensively examined the landslide′s causes from various aspects, including terrain and geomorphological conditions, geological and lithological characteristics, rock structure features, historical disaster context, rainfall, earthquakes, and the “chimney effect”. Furthermore, the post-instability movement process of the landslide was simulated. Through comparative analysis of three typical landslide cases—Jinping Village in Junlian County, Liangshui Village in Zhenxiong County, and Zhaojiagou in Zhenxiong County—the research discussed the mechanisms of winter landslides induced by the “butterfly swarm effect” in the Wumeng Mountainous Region and proposed preventive recommendations. The findings indicate that continuous rainfall is the direct trigger of the Jinping Village landslide, with the landslide process categorized into five distinct stages: initiation, shearing and falling, landing and scraping, oblique throwing, and scraping and accumulation. Continuous rainfall or rain-snow events are critical triggering factors for winter landslides in the Wumeng Mountainous Region. Under the synergistic effects of steep terrain, landslide-prone strata, and unfavorable rock mass structures, a“butterfly swarm effect”emerged, where multiple factors interacted through nonlinear superposition and cascading reactions, ultimately leading to macro-events (landslide disasters) that far exceeded the impacts of individual factors (precipitation). This study serves as a significant reference for further investigation into the Jinping Village landslide in Junlian County and winter landslides in the Wumeng Mountainous Region.
|
|
|
|
|
|
[1] 彭柏兴，刘颖炯，刘 毅. 红层溶蚀风化特征及其工程影响[J]. 岩土工程学报，2011，33(增1)：141–145.(PENG Baixing，LIU Yingjiong，LIU Yi. Corrosion and weathered characteristics and engineering influences of red bed[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering，2011，33(Supp.1)：141–145.(in Chinese))
[2] ZHANG M，YIN Y P，HUANG B L. Mechanisms of rainfall-induced landslides in gently inclined red beds in the Eastern Sichuan Basin，SW China[J]. Landslides，2015，12(5)：973–983.
[3] 巨能攀，黄海峰，郑 达，等. 考虑含水率的红层泥岩蠕变特性及改进伯格斯模型[J]. 岩土力学，2016，37(增2)：67–74.(JU Nengpan，HUANG Haifeng，ZHENG Da，et al. Improved Burgers model for creep characteristics of red bed mudstone considering water content[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics，2016，37(Supp.2)：67–74.(in Chinese))
[4] 穆文平，王 康，钱 程，等. 青海上湾特大型红层老滑坡体形成机制研究[J]. 岩土力学，2016，37(3)：802–812.(MU Wenping，WANG Kang，QIAN Cheng，et al. Study of formation mechanism of giant red bed old landslide in Shangwan of Qinghai Province[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics，2016，37(3)：802–812.(in Chinese))
[5] 张 明，胡瑞林，殷跃平，等. 川东缓倾红层中降雨诱发型滑坡机制研究[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2014，33(增2)：3 783–3 790. (ZHANG Ming，HU Ruilin，YIN Yueping，et al. Study of mechanism of landslide induced by rainfall in gently inclined red stratum in East Sichuan Basin[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2014，33(Supp.2)：3 783–3 790.(in Chinese))
[6] 王迎春，陈 剑. 红层软岩微观结构与抗剪强度关系实验分析[J]. 现代地质，2013，27(3)：738–742.(WANG Yingchun，CHEN Jian. Preliminary research on the relationship between microscopic structure and shear strength of red-bed soft rocks[J]. Geoscience，2013，27(3)：738–742.(in Chinese))
[7] 邹宗兴，唐辉明，熊承仁，等. 大型顺层岩质滑坡渐进破坏地质力学模型与稳定性分析[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2012，31(11)： 2 222–2231.(ZOU Zongxing，TANG Huiming，XIONG Chengren，et al. Geomechanical model of progressive failure for large consequent bedding rockslide and its stability analysis[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2012，31(11)：2 222–2 231.(in Chinese))
[8] 邓华锋，周美玲，李建林，等. 水–岩作用下红层软岩力学特性劣化规律研究[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2016，35(增2)：3 481–3 491. (DENG Huafeng，ZHOU Meiling，LI Jianlin，et al. Mechanical properties deteriorating change rule research of red-layer soft rock under water-rock interaction[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2016，35(Supp.2)：3 481–3 491.(in Chinese))
[9] 白永健，葛 华，冯文凯，等. 乌蒙山区红层软岩滑坡地质演化及灾变过程离心机模型试验研究[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2019，38(增1)：3 025–3 035.(BAI Yongjian，GE Hua，FENG Wenkai，et al. Centrifugal tests on geological evolution and sliding process for red-bed soft rock landslide in Wumeng Mountain Area[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2019，38(Supp.1)： 3 025–3 035.(in Chinese))
[10] 杨 旭，周翠英，刘 镇，等. 华南典型巨厚层红层软岩边坡降雨失稳的模型试验研究[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2016，35(3)：549–557.(YANG Xu，ZHOU Cuiying，LIU Zhen，et al. Model tests for failure mechanism of typical soft rock slopes of red beds under rainfall in South China[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2016，35(3)：549–557.(in Chinese))
[11] 许 强，范宣梅，李 园，等. 板梁状滑坡形成条件、成因机制与防治措施[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2010，29(2)：242–250.(XU Qiang，FAN Xuanmei，LI Yuan，et al. Formation condition，genetic mechanism and treatment measures of plate-shaped landslide[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2010，29(2)：242–250.(in Chinese))
[12] 薛智文，许 冲，付登文，等. 2024年1月22日云南镇雄滑坡灾害成因分析[J]. 地震研究，2025，48(1)：80–88.(XUE Zhiwen，XU Chong，FU Dengwen，et al. Analysis of the causes of the landslide disaster in Zhenxiong，Yunnan on January 22，2024[J]. Journal of Seismological Research，2025，48(1)：80–88.(in Chinese))
[13] 黄远东，许 冲，薛智文，等. 从镇雄1·22山体滑坡事件浅析冬季滑坡伤亡事件规律[J]. 灾害学，2025，40(1)：110–116.(HUANG Yuandong，XU Chong，XUE Zhiwen，et al. Brief analysis on regular the pattern of winter landslide casualties from Zhenxiong 1·22 landslide incident[J]. Journal of Catastrophology，2025，40(1)： 110–116.(in Chinese))
[14] 殷跃平，刘传正，陈红旗，等. 2013年1月11日云南镇雄赵家沟特大滑坡灾害研究[J]. 工程地质学报，2013，21(1)：6–15.(YIN Yueping，LIU Chuanzheng，CHEN Hongqi，et al. Investigation on catastrophic landslide of January 11，2013 at Zhaojiagou，Zhenxiong County，Yunnan Province[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology，2013，21(1)：6–15.(in Chinese))
[15] 陈 博，宋 闯，李振洪，等. 四川筠连县金坪村滑坡灾前地貌变化和形变特征研究[J]. 武汉大学学报：信息科学版. https：s//doi.org/10.13203/j.whugis20250036.(CHEN Bo，SONG Chuang，LI Zhenhong，et al. Pre-failure deformation mechanism and geomorphological change of the Jinpingcun landslide，Junlian，Sichuan[J]. Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University，https：//doi.org/10. 13203/j.whugis20250036.(in Chinese))
[16] 段 旭，李 英，孙晓东. 昆明准静止锋结构[J]. 高原气象，2002，21(2)：205–209.(DUAN Xu，LI Ying，SUN Xiaodong. The structure of Kunming quasi-stationary front[J]. Plateau Meteorology，2002，21(2)：205–209.(in Chinese))
[17] 易桂喜，龙 锋，梁明剑，等. 2019年6月17日四川长宁Ms6.0地震序列震源机制解与发震构造分析[J]. 地球物理学报，2019，62(9)：3 432–3 447.(YI Guixi，LONG Feng，LIANG Mingjian， et al. Focal mechanism solutions and seismogenic structure of the 17 June 2019 Ms6.0 Sichuan Changning earthquake sequence[J]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics，2019，62(9)：3 432–3 447.(in Chinese))
[18] 王运生，刘江伟，赵 波，等. 四川珙县Ms5.4级地震斜坡地震动响应特征[J]. 地球科学与环境学报，2019，41(5)：613–622.(WANG Yunsheng，LIU Jiangwei，ZHAO Bo，et al. Response characteristics of slope seismic to Gongxian Ms5.4 earthquake in Sichuan，China[J]. Journal of Earth Sciences and Environment，2019，41(5)：613–622. (in Chinese))
[19] TAMURA G T，WILSON A G. Pressure differences caused by chimney effect in tall buildings[J]. ASHRAE Transaction，1967，73(2)：1–12.
[20] TAMURA G T. Pressure differences caused by wind on two tall buildings[J]. ASHRAE Transaction，1968，74(2)：1–8.
[21] TAMURA G T，WILSON A G. Pressure differences caused by wind on two tall buildings[J]. ASHRAE Transaction，1969，74(2)：170–181.
[22] 王占民. 建筑中的“烟囱效应”[硕士学位论文][D]. 西安：西安建筑科技大学，2001.(WANG Zhanmin. Chimney effect in buildings[M. S. Thesis][D]. Xi?an：Xi?an University of Architecture and Technology，2001.(in Chinese))
[23] 柴慧娟. 高层建筑空调设计[M]. 北京：中国建筑工业出版社，1995：21–24.(CAI Huijuan. Air conditioning design for high-rise buildings[M]. Beijing：China Architecture and Building Press，1995：21–24.(in Chinese))
[24] 杨金宁，郑 光，李鑫武，等. 2024年1月22日云南镇雄县凉水村滑坡特征与成因机制研究[J]. 工程地质学报，2025，33(2)：556–571.(YANG Jinning，ZHENG Guang，LI Xinwu，et al. Characteristics and failure mechanism of rock avalanche in Liangshui Village，Zhenxiong County，Yunnan Province，on January 22，2024[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology，2025，33(2)：556–571.(in Chinese))
[25] 云南省人民政府调查评估工作组. 昭通市镇雄县“1·22”山体滑坡灾害调查评估报告[R]. 昆明：云南省人民政府，2024.(Working Group for Investigation and Assessment of the People?s Government of Yunnan Province. Investigation and assessment report on the“1·22”landslide disaster in Zhenxiong County，Zhaotong City[R]. Kunming：The People?s Government of Yunnan Province，2024.(in Chinese))
[26] 姚 鑫，余 凯，张永双，等.“1·11”镇雄灾难性滑坡滑动机制：高孔隙度土流态化启动与滑动液化[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2014，33(5)：1 047–1 054.(YAO Xin，YU Kai，ZHANG Yongshuang，et al. Mechanisms of catastrophic landslide on January 11，2013，in Zhenxiong County：fluidization initiation and movement liquefaction of high porosity soil[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2014，33(5)：1 047–1 054.(in Chinese)) |
|
|
|
2025, Vol. 44 
