Non-probabilistic reliability evaluation and safety early warning method for core-wall rockfill dams in service
SU Huaizhi1，2，LI Jiatian2，3
(1. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering，Hohai University，Nanjing，Jiangsu 210098，China；2. College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering，Hohai University，Nanjing，Jiangsu 210098，China；3. The Research Center of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Technology，Huaihe River Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources，Bengbu，Anhui 233001，China)
Abstract：The core-wall rockfill dam is an uncertain system affected by many complicated factors. It is of great significance to research the evaluation and early warning method of the service reliability of core-wall rockfill dams from the point of uncertainty for the scientific evaluation of the safe state of the dams in service and the improvement of dam risk management level. Lack of data on some uncertain parameters and dependence of the probability distribution functions on experience make the traditional probability reliability evaluation approaches difficult to be applied. The analytical method of non-probabilistic reliability is applied to the analysis of the service state of the core-wall rockfill dams，and a non-probabilistic reliability calculation model of the core-wall rockfill dams based on dimension proportional factors is constructed after probing into the representation model of uncertain parameters. A method for formulating the deformation safety multi-point comprehensive early warning index of the core-wall rockfill dams is presented based on non-probabilistic reliability，which combines with the grading standard of the non-probabilistic target reliability index. The reliability of a core-wall rockfill dam in service is evaluated and the multi-point comprehensive early warning index of deformation safety is developed by using the developed method. An engineering example shows that it is feasible to apply the non-probabilistic reliability evaluation and safety early warning method to the deformation safety analysis of the core-wall rockfill dams.
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2021, Vol. 40 
