边坡变形收敛稳定的通用位移判据：来自650个案例统计分析的洞见

doi:10.3724/1000-6915.jrme.2025.0877

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摘要边坡变形稳定性是边坡工程领域关注的重点，不同于抗滑稳定安全控制标准，由于边坡演化的复杂性和差异性，目前仍缺乏用于定量判识边坡变形是否收敛稳定的通用判据。为此，构建包含650个边坡案例的数据库，并将其划分为变形趋稳（145例）、潜在失稳（340例）和失稳破坏（165例）三类案例。然后，对各案例稳定变形阶段与等速变形阶段的月位移增量?Sm和年位移增量?Sa进行统计与对比分析，并引入风险度量指标对其统计特征进行风险分析，据此提出边坡变形稳定收敛判据。结果表明：（1）变形趋稳案例中，?Sm和?Sa的均值分别为0.04 ± 0.03 mm/month和0.79 ± 1.29 mm/a，且绝大部分案例的变形速率低于0.1?mm/month（占比约91.9%）和1?mm/a（占比约78.3%）。相比之下，潜在失稳及失稳破坏案例的?Sm和?Sa量值显著偏大，数据点分布离散并跨越多个数量级，与变形趋稳案例之间表现出明显的区分性。（2）依据数据统计与风险分析，?Sm = 0.1 mm/month和?Sa = 1 mm/a可作为判定边坡变形收敛稳定的通用判据；当?Sm≤0.1 mm/month且?Sa≤1 mm/a时，可认定其变形已处于稳定状态。（3）龙滩水电站倾倒变形体（稳定）、锦屏I级水电站左岸边坡（局部稳定）和新滩滑坡（失稳）三个工程案例的详细分析进一步验证了该判据的可靠性。研究成果可为边坡稳定性判识、风险预警与工程验收提供科学依据。

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	陈铭熙1
	孔璟浩1
	姜清辉2*
	周创兵2

关键词 ：边坡工程, 变形, 稳定性, 统计分析, 位移增量, 收敛判据

Abstract：Slope deformation stability is a key concern in slope engineering. Unlike the safety control standards for anti-sliding stability, the complex and variable nature of slope evolution has so far prevented the establishment of a unified criterion to quantitatively determine whether deformation has converged to a stable state. To address this, a database of 650 slope cases is compiled and classified into three categories: deformation-convergent (145 cases), potentially unstable (340 cases), and failure (165 cases). Monthly (?Sm) and annual (?Sa) displacement increments during both stable and secondary deformation stages are statistically analyzed and compared. Risk characteristics of ?Sm and ?Sa are further examined using risk measurement indicators. The results indicate that: (1) For deformation-convergent cases, the mean ?Sm and ?Sa are approximately 0.04 ± 0.03 mm/month and 0.79 ± 1.29 mm/year, respectively. The vast majority of cases exhibit deformation rates below 0.1 mm/month (≈ 91.9%) and 1 mm/year (≈ 78.3%). In contrast, potentially unstable and failure cases display significantly larger ?Sm and ?Sa values, with data points dispersed across multiple orders of magnitude, showing clear differentiation from the deformation-convergent cases. (2) Based on statistical and risk analyses, thresholds of ?Sm = 0.1 mm/month and ?Sa = 1 mm/year can serve as unified convergence stability criterion. When ?Sm≤0.1 mm/month and ?Sa≤1 mm/year, slopes can be considered stable. (3) The reliability of this criterion is further validated through three representative cases of the toppling deforestation slope of Longtan Hydropower Station (stable), the left-bank slope of Jinping-I Hydropower Station (partially stable), and the Xintan landslide (unstable). The results provide a practical and scientific basis for slope stability assessment, risk early warning, and engineering acceptance.

Key words： slope engineering deformation stability statistical analysis displacement increment convergence criterion

引用本文:

陈铭熙1，孔璟浩1，姜清辉2*，周创兵2. 边坡变形收敛稳定的通用位移判据：来自650个案例统计分析的洞见[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2026, 45(8): 2370-2390.
CHEN Mingxi1, KONG Jinghao1, JIANG Qinghui2*, ZHOU Chuangbing2. Unified displacement criterion for slope deformation converging to a stable state: insights from the statistical analysis of 650 cases. , 2026, 45(8): 2370-2390.

链接本文:

https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/CN/10.3724/1000-6915.jrme.2025.0877 或 https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/CN/Y2026/V45/I8/2370

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