ROCKBURST TENDENCY PREDICTION BASED ON AHP-TOPSIS EVALUATION MODEL
GONG Jian，HU Nailian，CUI Xiang，WANG Xiaodong
(State Key Laboratory of High-efficient Mining and Safety of Metal Mines，Ministry of Education，University of Science and Technology Beijing，Beijing 100083，China)
Abstract：A comprehensive model of evaluating the prediction of rockburst was established based on the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) and the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS). The indices of evaluation of rockburst were selected from lithological，stress and rock conditions. The criterion of rockburst level was constructed according to the critical values of evaluation indices. The weight matrix of the evaluation indices was determined objectively according to the AHP and the degree of closeness was analyzed with the TOPSIS，as such the prediction level of rockburst was determined. The results of a case study show that the predicted results of rockburst based on the evaluation model of AHP-TOPSIS are consistent with the actual measured results and agree well with the outcomes from the method of fuzzy mathematics. The proposed method considers various inducing factors of rockburst and avoids the limitation of a single criterion. The importances of various factors are compared to make the predicted results more sensible.
[1] 王元汉，李卧东，李启光，等. 岩爆预测的模糊数学综合评判方法[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，1998，17(5)：493–501.(WANG Yuanhan，LI Wodong，LI Qiguang，et al. Comprehensive method for estimating rock burst with FUZZY[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，1998，17(5)：493–501.(in Chinese))
[2] 单晓云，徐东强，张艳博. 用突变理论预报巷道岩爆发生的可能性[J]. 矿山测量，2000，(12)：36–37.(SHAN Xiaoyun，XU Dongqiang，ZHANG Yanbo. The possibility of rock burst in tunnel based on catastrophe theory prediction[J]. Mine Surveying，2000，(12)：36–37.(in Chinese))
[3] 胡 敏，陈建宏，陆玉根. 基于遗传算法和BP神经网络岩爆预测[J]. 矿业研究与开发，2011，(10)：90–94.(HU Min，CHEN Jianhong，LU Yugen. Research on rock burst prediction based on BP neural network and GA[J]. Mining Research and Development，2011，(10)：90–94.(in Chinese))
[4] LIN M Y，WANG C C，CHEN M S，et al. Using AHP and TOPSIS approaches in customer-driven product design process[J]. Computers in Industry，2008，59(1)：17–31.
[5] 陈婷婷，宋永发. 基于AHP-TOPSIS的地铁车站施工方案比选[J]. 工程管理学报，2012，(4)：33–36.(CHEN Tingting，SONG Yongfa. Construction planning decision of subway stations based on AHP- TOPSIS method[J]. Journal of Engineering Management，2012，(4)：33–36.(in Chinese))
[6] 黄贯虹，方 刚. 系统工程方法与应用[M]. 广州：暨南大学出社，2005：45–48.(HUANG Guanhong，FANG Gang. System engineering method and application[M]. Guangzhou：Jinan University Press，2005：45–48.(in Chinese))
[7] 龚 剑，胡乃联，张延凯，等. 基于AHP-FCE法的高海拔地区采矿方法优选[J]. 金属矿山，2013，(9)：1–5.(GONG Jian，HU Nailian，ZHANG Yankai，et al. Optimization of mining methods in high-altitude areas based on AHP-FCE[J]. Metal Mine，2013，(9)：1–5.(in Chinese))
[8] 许宝田，阎长虹，许宏发，等. 基于模糊理论的软岩弹性模型识别及参数反分析[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2006，25(11)：2 280– 2 286.(XU Baotian，YAN Changhong，XU Hongfa，et al. Viscidity- elastic model identification and back analysis of parameters of soft rock on Fuzzy theory[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2006，25(11)：2 280–2 286.(in Chinese))
[9] 徐玖平，吴 巍. 多属性决策的理论与方法[M]. 北京：清华大学出版社，2006：66–73.(XU Jiuping，WU Wei. Multiple attribute decision making theory and methods[M]. Beijing：Tsinghua University Press，2006：66–73.(in Chinese))
[10] 王新民，秦健春，张钦礼，等. 基于AHP_TOPSIS评判模型的姑山驻留矿采矿方法优选[J]. 中南大学学报：自然科学版，2013，44(3)：1 131–1 137.(WANG Xinmin，QIN Jianchun，ZHANG Qinli，et al. Mining method optimization of Gu Mountain stay ore based on AHP-TOPSIS evaluation model[J]. Journal of Central South University：Science and Technology，2013，44(3)：1 131–1 137.(in Chinese))
[11] 谢本贤，陈沅江，史秀志. 深部岩体工程围岩质量评价的IRMR法研究[J]. 中南大学学报：自然科学版，2007，38(5)：987–992.(XIE Benxian，CHEN Ruanjiang，SHI Xiuzhi. IRMR method for evaluation of surrounding rock quality in deep rock mass engineering[J]. Journal of Central South University：Science and Technology，2007，38(5)：987–992.(in Chinese))
[12] 杨 健，武 雄. 岩爆综合预测评价方法[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2005，24(3)：411–416.(YANG Jian，WU Xiong. Comprehensive forecasting method for estimating rock burst[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2005，24(3)：411–416.(in Chinese))
[13] 李庶林，冯夏庭，王泳嘉，等. 深井硬岩岩爆倾向性评价[J]. 东北大学学报，2001，22(1)：60–63.(LI Shulin，FENG Xiating，WANG Yongjia，et al. Evaluation of rock burst proneness in a deep hard rock mine[J]. Journal of Northeastern University，2001，22(1)：60–63.(in Chinese))
[14] 张镜剑，傅冰骏. 岩爆及其判据和防治[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2008，27(10)：2 034–2 042.(ZHANG Jingjian，FU Bingjun. Rock burst and its criteria and control[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2008，27(10)：2 034–2 042.(in Chinese))
[15] 蔡美峰，王金安，王双红，等. 玲珑金矿深部开采岩体能量分析与岩爆综合预测[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2001，20(1)：38–42.(CAI Meifeng，WANG Jin?an，WANG Shuanghong，et al. Analysis of energy distribution and prediction of rock burst during deep mining excavation in Linglong gold mine[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2001，20(1)：38–42.(in Chinese))
[16] 唐礼忠，王文星. 一种新的岩爆倾向性指标[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2002，21(6)：874–878.(TANG Lizhong，WANG Wenxing. New rock burst proneness index[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2002，21(6)：874–878.(in Chinese))
[17] 许梦国，杜子建，姚高辉，等. 程潮铁矿深部开采岩爆预测[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2008，27(增1)：2 921–2 928.(XU Mengguo，DU Zijian，YAO Gaohui，et al. Rock burst prediction of Chengchao iron mine during deep mining[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2008，27(Supp.1)：2 921–2 928.(in Chinese))
[18] 刘正雄. 岩爆预防及防治技术研究[J]. 中国铁道科学，2001，22(4)：74–76.(LIU Zhengxiong. Technical study on the prevention and cure of rock burst[J]. China Railway Science，2001，22(4)：74–76.(in Chinese))
2014, Vol. 33 
