Abstract：Considering the complexity of underground engineering geological conditions and the uncertainty of risk，a risk evaluation methodology was put forward to realize quantitative assessment based on attribute mathematical theory. The value of evaluation index is an interval rather than a certain value，which is the core of the proposed method differed with other methods. A new method and its applications were proposed for synthetic attribute measure analysis and attribute recognition with an engineering case. Seven major influencing factors of water inrush in karst areas were selected as the evaluation indices and the index system of water inrush risk assessment was constituted，and a corresponding evaluation model was established. Comprehensive assignment method was applied to analyze the weights of evaluation indices. The water inrush risk of one tunnel was evaluated by using the established model，and comparisons of the results derived from the proposed method and attribute mathematical method were made. The results indicate that the evaluation results are basically in a good agreement with the observed results，which verify the rationality and feasibility of the proposed method. The risk assessment methodology can provide a powerful tool for quantitative assessment of water inrush in karst tunnels.
李术才，周宗青，李利平，石少帅，许振浩. 岩溶隧道突水风险评价理论与方法及工程应用[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2013, 32(9): 1858-1867.
LI Shucai，ZHOU Zongqing，LI Liping，SHI Shaoshuai，XU Zhenhao. RISK EVALUATION THEORY AND METHOD OF WATER INRUSH IN KARST TUNNELS AND ITS APPLICATIONS. , 2013, 32(9): 1858-1867.
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2013, Vol. 32 
