基于AHP-TOPSIS评判模型的岩爆倾向性预测

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摘要为验证AHP-TOPSIS评判模型预测岩爆的可行性，依据层次分析法(AHP)与逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS)的基本理论建立出岩爆预测评判模型，从岩性条件、应力条件与围岩条件3个方面选取岩爆发生的评判指标，再根据评判指标的临界值构建出岩爆等级判断准则，并通过AHP法客观确定各评判指标的权重向量，进而结合TOPSIS法分析贴近度并计算得出岩爆预测等级。实例应用得出，基于AHP-TOPSIS评判模型的岩爆预测结果与实际结果相吻合，同时与模糊数学的评判结果基本相符。该方法较全面地考虑了岩爆发生的多种影响因素，避免了单一判据的局限性，并对各种因素的重要性进行对比分析，使预测结果更为科学，可作为岩爆预测的理论依据，同时可为岩爆灾害预测提供一种可靠的新预测方法。

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关键词 ：岩石力学, 岩爆, 层次分析法(AHP), 逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS), 评判指标, 预测

Abstract：A comprehensive model of evaluating the prediction of rockburst was established based on the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) and the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS). The indices of evaluation of rockburst were selected from lithological，stress and rock conditions. The criterion of rockburst level was constructed according to the critical values of evaluation indices. The weight matrix of the evaluation indices was determined objectively according to the AHP and the degree of closeness was analyzed with the TOPSIS，as such the prediction level of rockburst was determined. The results of a case study show that the predicted results of rockburst based on the evaluation model of AHP-TOPSIS are consistent with the actual measured results and agree well with the outcomes from the method of fuzzy mathematics. The proposed method considers various inducing factors of rockburst and avoids the limitation of a single criterion. The importances of various factors are compared to make the predicted results more sensible.

Key words： rock mechanics rockburst analytic hierarchy process(AHP) technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS) evaluation index prediction

收稿日期: 2013-11-07

引用本文:

龚剑，胡乃联，崔翔，王孝东. 基于AHP-TOPSIS评判模型的岩爆倾向性预测[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2014, 33(7): 1442-1448.
GONG Jian，HU Nailian，CUI Xiang，WANG Xiaodong. ROCKBURST TENDENCY PREDICTION BASED ON AHP-TOPSIS EVALUATION MODEL. , 2014, 33(7): 1442-1448.

链接本文:

http://www.rockmech.org/CN/Y2014/V33/I7/1442

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