九寨沟县滑坡灾害易发性快速评估模型对比研究

doi:10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2020.0029

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摘要通过地理信息系统(GIS)技术，采用信息量(I)、确定性系数(CF)、逻辑回归(LR)、逻辑回归–信息量(LR-I)和逻辑回归–确定性系数(LR-CF)耦合模型的快速评估方法对九寨沟县范围内滑坡灾害易发性评价，并对5种模型进行比较研究。基于历史资料、遥感解译和现场调查，获取九寨沟全县6 205个滑坡灾害点作为样本数据库，选取海拔、坡度、坡向、地形曲率、剖面曲率、平面曲率、地形起伏度、地表粗糙度、地表切割度、地层岩性、距断层距离、PGA、降雨、距公路距离和距水系距离共计15项评价指标因子，基于GIS平台提取80%滑坡点作为训练样本，采用I，CF，LR模型建立九寨沟县滑坡灾害易发性评价体系，并将滑坡易发性划分为极低、低、中、高和极高。基于I，CF和LR模型，提出LR-I和LR-CF耦合模型，实现各评价指标因子二次逻辑回归计算，优化了九寨沟地区滑坡灾害易发性区划图。最后利用未参与训练的20%滑坡点作为检验样本，利用频率比和ROC曲线进行精度检验。结果表明：5种评价模型得到的滑坡的高易发区和极高易发区频率比值占总频率比值均超过85%，I，CF，LR，LR-I和LR-CF的AUC评价精度分别为0.762，0.756，0.788，0.838和0.836，表明5种模型均能较好评价九寨沟地区滑坡灾害易发性。LR-I和LR-CF模型与单一的I，CF模型相比能将滑坡易发性评价精度提高约8%；与单一LR模型相比，其精度提高约5%，说明LR-I和LR-CF模型的滑坡预测更优于单一的I，CF和LR模型，为快速建立评价指标体系和区域滑坡易发性提供了可靠途径。

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	张玘恺1
	凌斯祥1
	李晓宁2
	孙春卫1
	徐建祥3
	黄涛3

关键词 ：边坡工程, 滑坡易发性, 信息量法, 确定性系数法, 逻辑回归法, GIS, 九寨沟

Abstract：The main purpose of this study is to compare the five rapid assessment methods of landslide susceptibility mapping including information value(I)，certainty factor(CF)，logistic regression(LR)，LR-I and LR-CF based on GIS technique. The five models are applied in Jiuzhaigou County，Sichuan，China，which is part of the area affected by the August 8，2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquake. 6205 landslides were selected as the database based on history records，remote sensing interpretation and field investigation，and fifteen influence factors including elevation，slope gradient，slope aspect，terrain curvature，profile curvature，plane curvature，PGA，stratum lithology，rainfall，topographic relief，surface roughness，surface cutting degree，distance to fault，distance to highway and distance to river were chosen as the evaluation indices. The I，CF and LR models were used to build the landslide susceptibility mapping evaluation systems based on 80% of total(6205) landslide database，and the landslide susceptibility was set as extremely low，low，middle，high and extremely high in Jiuzhaigou County. The LR-I and LR-CF coupling models were proposed to optimally perform landslide susceptibility at Jiuzhaigou County. A susceptibility evaluation index system was secondly calculated by logistic regression and susceptibility level prediction for landslides was performed based on GIS platform. The validations of the resulting susceptibility maps were performed and compared by the frequency ratio and the area under curve(AUC) in receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC)，which represents the respective success rate. The results indicate that the frequency ratio of high and extremely high susceptibility in the Jiuzhaigou County is more than 85% for all I，CF，LR，LR-I and LR-CF models and the AUC assessment accuracy of the five models is respectively 0.762，0.756，0.788，0.838 and 0.836. The LR-I and LR-CF models can improve evaluation accuracy approximately 8% compared to I and CF models and approximately equal to5% compared to LR model，proving that the LR-I and LR-CF are better than I，CF and LR for predicting landslide susceptibility. These models can provide reliable approaches for rapidly building up evaluation index system and regional landslide susceptibility.

Key words： slope engineering landslide susceptibility information value method certainty factor method logistic regression method geographic information system(GIS) Jiuzhaigou

引用本文:

张玘恺1，凌斯祥1，李晓宁2，孙春卫1，徐建祥3，黄涛3. 九寨沟县滑坡灾害易发性快速评估模型对比研究[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2020, 39(8): 1595-1610.
ZHANG Qikai1，LING Sixiang1，LI Xiaoning2，SUN Chunwei1，XU Jianxiang3，HUANG Tao3. Comparison of landslide susceptibility mapping rapid assessment models in Jiuzhaigou County，Sichuan province，China#br#. , 2020, 39(8): 1595-1610.

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http://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/CN/10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2020.0029 或 http://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/CN/Y2020/V39/I8/1595

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