基于变形演化特征呷爬滑坡预测预警研究

doi:10.3724/1000-6915.jrme.2024.0235

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摘要水库滑坡严重威胁库区安全运营及两岸居民生命财产，揭示其控制因素、变形演化规律是安全监控的前提。针对西南库区高蓄水及水位大变幅的特点，以锦屏一级库区呷爬滑坡为例，基于GNSS、深部测斜以及InSAR等多源数据开展滑坡变形演化特征研究，并建立预测预警模型。现场监测结果揭示水库蓄水与水位周期性波动分别对该滑坡变形演化过程具有超前强扰以及周期性扰动作用。在预测方面，利用GNSS时间序列，当滑坡处于未来破坏假设下，通过费尔哈斯特反函数推演滑坡未来15年的变形破坏，获得更实用的滑坡三阶段变形破坏曲线及位移预测结果。在预警方面，由于库水对该滑坡变形影响显著，基于人工神经网络确定诱发滑坡周期性加速的水位及水位变化率阈值，分别为1 820 m和0.4 m/d。据此双阈值测试GNSS数据，确定用于日频率的滑坡速率阈值为4 mm/d。最终形成库水位阈值–位移速率阈值的综合预警模式。研究结果可为西部高蓄水大变幅库区大型滑坡安全监控研究提供参考。

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	吴爽爽1
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关键词 ：边坡工程, 滑坡, 库水位, 全球卫星导航系统(GNSS), 预测预警, 变形演化

Abstract：Reservoir landslides are a serious threat to the safe operation of the reservoir area and the lives and properties of the residents on river banks. The inducing factors and evolution features are both vital for the safety monitoring and control. In this study，considering the characteristics of high water level impoundment and large water level variation in the southwest reservoir area，the Gapa landslide in Jinping reservoir area is taken as an example. The landslide deformation characteristics has been revealed based on multi-source data such as GNSS，inclinometer and InSAR，then the prediction and warning model has also been established. The field monitoring results reveal that reservoir water impoundment has a strong interference effect and cyclic fluctuation has a cyclic perturbation effect on the deformation of this landslide，respectively. In terms of prediction，if the landslide is under a special assumption of future failure，the deformation trend of the landslide in the next fifteen years is deduced by the Verhurst inverse function using the GNSS time series. A more practical three-stage deformation damage curves of the landslide and displacement prediction results can be obtained. In terms of early warning，due to the significant influence of reservoir water on the landslide，the thresholds for water level and rate of water level change are determined. Based on Artificial neural network，they are 1 820 m and 0.4 m/d，respectively. According to this dual-threshold can test the GNSS data，the threshold of landslide rate for daily frequency warning is determined to be 4 mm/d. Finally，the dual-threshold for the reservoir water and the threshold for the displacement velocity are formed. The prediction and early warning results can provide a reference for the safety monitoring of large landslides in the reservoir area with high impoundment and large variation in water level.

Key words： slope engineering landslides reservoir water GNSS forecasting and the early warning deformation and evolution

引用本文:

吴爽爽1，2，董俊利3. 基于变形演化特征呷爬滑坡预测预警研究[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2025, 44(S1): 61-73.
WU Shuangshuang1，2，DONG Junli3 . Forecasting and early warning of the Gapa landslide based on deformation and evolution characteristics#br#. , 2025, 44(S1): 61-73.

链接本文:

https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/CN/10.3724/1000-6915.jrme.2024.0235 或 https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/CN/Y2025/V44/IS1/61

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