Forecasting and early warning of the Gapa landslide based on deformation and evolution characteristics#br#
WU Shuangshuang1，2，DONG Junli3
(1. School of Geosciences and Engineering，Hohai University，Nanjing，Jiangsu 211100，China；2. Geological Survey Institute of Hunan Province，Changsha，Hunan 410014，China；3. School of Civil Engineering，Central South University，Changsha，Hunan 410075，China)
Abstract：Reservoir landslides are a serious threat to the safe operation of the reservoir area and the lives and properties of the residents on river banks. The inducing factors and evolution features are both vital for the safety monitoring and control. In this study，considering the characteristics of high water level impoundment and large water level variation in the southwest reservoir area，the Gapa landslide in Jinping reservoir area is taken as an example. The landslide deformation characteristics has been revealed based on multi-source data such as GNSS，inclinometer and InSAR，then the prediction and warning model has also been established. The field monitoring results reveal that reservoir water impoundment has a strong interference effect and cyclic fluctuation has a cyclic perturbation effect on the deformation of this landslide，respectively. In terms of prediction，if the landslide is under a special assumption of future failure，the deformation trend of the landslide in the next fifteen years is deduced by the Verhurst inverse function using the GNSS time series. A more practical three-stage deformation damage curves of the landslide and displacement prediction results can be obtained. In terms of early warning，due to the significant influence of reservoir water on the landslide，the thresholds for water level and rate of water level change are determined. Based on Artificial neural network，they are 1 820 m and 0.4 m/d，respectively. According to this dual-threshold can test the GNSS data，the threshold of landslide rate for daily frequency warning is determined to be 4 mm/d. Finally，the dual-threshold for the reservoir water and the threshold for the displacement velocity are formed. The prediction and early warning results can provide a reference for the safety monitoring of large landslides in the reservoir area with high impoundment and large variation in water level.
吴爽爽1，2，董俊利3. 基于变形演化特征呷爬滑坡预测预警研究[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2025, 44(S1): 61-73.
WU Shuangshuang1，2，DONG Junli3 . Forecasting and early warning of the Gapa landslide based on deformation and evolution characteristics#br#. , 2025, 44(S1): 61-73.
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2025, Vol. 44 
