(1. School of Civil and Transportation Engineering，Hebei University of Technology，Tianjin 300401，China；
2. State Key Laboratory of Geomechanics and Geotechnical Engineering，Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Wuhan，Hubei 430071，China；3. Faculty of Engineering，China University of Geosciences(Wuhan)，Wuhan，
Hubei 430074，China)
Abstract：The existing deterministic models that can consider rainfall effects have disadvantages such as high computational cost and inability to solve the uncertainty of geotechnical parameters when assessing regional-scale landslide hazard. To address this problem，the fast shallow landslide assessment model(FSLAM) was proposed，which can be used for rapid assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslide hazard. The FSLAM model can consider both antecedent effective and event rainfall conditions to calculate slope groundwater and stochastic parameters were used in the model to calculate probability of failure to reflect landslide hazard. A homogeneous slope was used to do sensitivity analysis of parameters of the model. The results showed that soil cohesion，friction angle，and vegetation root cohesion were the most important input parameters of the model. The engineering application of the FSLAM model for regional landslide hazard assessment was carried out by taking the landslides induced by typhoon Megi in Wenzhou City of Zhejiang Province in 2016 as an example. The analysis results indicated that the FSLAM model can accurately capture the effect of rainfall on the probability of failure of shallow landslides，and the accuracy of receiver operating characteristic curve reached 76.4%. The model can effectively reduce the uncertainty of geotechnical parameters and improve the accuracy by using stochastic parameters. Since the simplified SCS-CN method was used to calculate the vertical flow of groundwater instead of the complex Richards equation，the computational efficiency at the regional scale of the FSLAM model is 25 times better than the TRIGRS model，and the accuracy of the TRIGRS was only 69.8%.
[1] BAUM R L，GODT J W. Early warning of rainfall-induced shallow landslides and debris flows in the USA[J]. Landslides，2010，7：259–272.
[2] 李 宁，许建聪，钦亚洲. 降雨诱发浅层滑坡稳定性的计算模型研究[J]. 岩土力学，2012，33(5)：1 485–1 490.(LI Ning，XU Jiancong，QIN Yazhou. Research on calculation model for stability evaluation of rainfall-induced shallow landslides[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics，2012，33(5)：1 485–1 490.(in Chinese))
[3] SHOU K J，YANG C M. Predictive analysis of landslide susceptibility under climate change conditions—A study on the Chingshui River Watershed of Taiwan[J]. Engineering Geology，2000，192：46–62.
[4] 郭子正，殷坤龙，刘庆丽，等. 基于位移比模型的三峡库区云阳县域内蠕变型滑坡降雨预警[J]. 地球科学，2020，45(2)：673–684.(GUO Zizheng，YIN Kunlong，LIU Qingli，et al. Rainfall warning of creeping landslide in Yunyang County of Three Gorges Reservoir region based on displacement ratio model[J]. Earth Science，2020，45(2)：673–684.(in Chinese))
[5] FELL R，COROMINAS J，BONNARD C，et al. Guidelines for landslide susceptibility，hazard and risk zoning for land use planning[J]. Engineering Geology，2008，102(3/4)：85–98.
[6] GUZZETTI F，CARRARA A，CARDINALI M，et al. Landslide hazard evaluation：a review of current techniques and their application in a multi-scale study，Central Italy[J]. Geomorphology，1999，31(1/4)：181–216.
[7] SEZER E A，NEFESLIOGLU H A，OSNA T. An expert-based landslide susceptibility mapping(LSM) module developed for Netcad Architect Software[J]. Computers and Geosciences，2017，98：26–37.
[8] RUFF M，CZURDA K. Landslide susceptibility analysis with a heuristic approach in the Eastern Alps(Vorarlberg，Austria)[J]. Geomorphology，2008，94(3)：314–324.
[9] ZÊZERE J L，PEREIRA S，MELO R，et al. Mapping landslide susceptibility using data-driven methods[J]. Science of the Total Environmental，2017，589：250–267.
[10] CHANG K T，CHIANG S H. An integrated model for predicting rainfall-induced landslides[J]. Geomorphology，2009，105(3)：366–373.
[11] 庄建琦，彭建兵，张利勇. 不同降雨条件下黄土高原浅层滑坡危险性预测评价[J]. 吉林大学学报：地球科学版，2013，43(3)：867–876.(ZHUANG Jianqi，PENG Jianbing，ZHANG Liyong. Risk assessment and prediction of the shallow landslide at different precipitation in loess plateau[J]. Journal of Jilin University：Earth Science，2013，43(3)：867–876.(in Chinese))
[12] MONTGOMERY D R，DIETRICH W E. A physically based model for the topographic control on shallow landsliding[J]. Water Resources Research，1994，30：1 153–1 171.
[13] PACK R T，TARBOTON D G，GOODWIN C N. The SINMAP approach to terrain stability mapping[C]// Proceedings of the 8th IAEG Congress，Vancouver. Rotterdam：A. A. Balkema，1998：1 157–1 165.
[14] REID M E，CHRISTIAN S B，BRIEN D L. Gravitational stability of three-dimensional stratovolcano edifices[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research-Solid Earth，2000，105(B3)：6 043–6 056.
[15] RIGON R，BERTOLDI G，OVER T M. GEOtop：A distributed hydrological model with coupled water and energy budgets[J]. Journal of Hydrometeorology，2006，7(3)：371–388.
[16] BAUM R L，SAVAGE W Z，GODT J W. TRIGRS—A fortran program for transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability analysis，version 2.0[R]. U.S. Geological Survey. Open-File Report. [S. l.]：[s. n.]，2008.
[17] MONTRASIO L，VALENTINO R. A model for triggering mechanisms of shallow landslides[J]. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences，2008，8(5)：1 149–1 159.
[18] LEHMANN P，OR D. Hydromechanical triggering of landslides：from progressive local failures to mass release[J]. Water Resources Research，2012，48(3)：W03535.
[19] ROSSI M，CATANI F，LEONI L，et al. HIRESSS：a physically based slope stability simulator for HPC applications[J]. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences，2013，13：151–166.
[20] MERGILI M，MARCHESINI I，ROSSI M，et al. Spatially distributed three-dimensional slope stability modelling in a raster GIS[J]. Geomorphology，2014，206：178–195.
[21] 崔 鹏，杨 坤，陈 杰. 前期降雨对泥石流形成的贡献—以蒋家沟泥石流形成为例[J]. 中国水土保持科学，2003，1(1)：11–15.(CUI Peng，YANG Kun，CHEN Jie. Relationship between occurrence of debris flow and antecedent precipitation：taking the Jiangjia gully as an example[J]. Science of Soil and Water Conservation，2003，1(1)：11–15.(in Chinese))
[22] 徐则民，黄润秋. 山区流域高盖度斜坡对极端降雨事件的地下水响应[J]. 地球科学进展，2011，26(6)：598–607.(XU Zemin，HUANG Runqiu. The response of the groundwater in the vegetated slops in mountainous catchments to heavy rain events[J]. Advances in Earth Science，2011，26(6)：598–607.(in Chinese))
[23] IVERSON R M. Landslide triggering by rain infiltration[J]. Water Resources Research，2000，36(7)：1 897–1 910.
[24] SEGONI S，PICIULLO L，GARIANO S L. A review of the recent literature on rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence[J]. Landslides，2018，15：1 483–1 501.
[25] 朱帅润，吴礼舟. 加速型改进迭代法在非饱和土渗流中的应用研究[J]. 岩土力学，2022，43(3)：697–707.(ZHU Shuairun，WU Lizhou. Application research on the accelerated modified iteration method in the unsaturated flow[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics，2022，43(3)：697–707.(in Chinese))
[26] 赵记领，李光范，胡 伟，等. 雨林乔木直根根土复合体的抗剪强度试验研究[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2017，36(增1)：3 663–3 669. (ZHAO Jiling，LI Guangfan，HU Wei，et al. Experiment research on rainforest trees tap root resistance slide effect in the shallow landslide[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2017，36(Supp.1)：3 663–3 669.(in Chinese))
[27] LIU Z，HUANG Y，LIU T，et al. Water Balance Analysis Based on a Quantitative Evapotranspiration Inversion in the Nukus Irrigation Area，Lower Amu River Basin[J]. Remote Sensing，2020，12(14)：2 317.
[28] USDA. Urban hydrology for small watersheds. Technical release 55[R]. [S. l.]：National Resources Conservation Service，1986.
[29] TOFANI V，BICOCCHI G，ROSSI S，et al. Soil characterization for shallow landslides modeling：a case study in the Northern Apennines (Central Italy)[J]. Landslides，2017，14：755–770.
[30] SIMONI S，ZANOTTI F，BERTOLDI G，et al. Modelling the probability of occurrence of shallow landslides and channelized debris flows using GEOtop-FS[J]. Hydrological Processes，2008，22(4)：532–545.
[31] PARK H J，LEE J H，WOO I. Assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslide susceptibility using a GIS-based probabilistic approach[J]. Engineering Geology，2013，161：1–15.
[32] WANG Y，LIU J，YAN S，et al. Estimation of probability distribution of shear strength of slip zone soils in Middle Jurassic red beds in Wanzhou of China[J]. Landslides，2017，14：2 165–2 174.
[33] 李远耀，殷坤龙，柴 波，等. 三峡库区滑带土抗剪强度参数的统计规律研究[J]. 岩土力学，2008，29(5)：1 419–1 424.(LI yuanyan，YIN Kunling，CHAI bo. Study on statistical rule of shear strength parameters of soil in landslide zone in Three Gorges Reservoir area[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics，2008，29(5)：1 419–1 424.(in Chinese))
[34] 吴振君，王水林，汤 华，等. 一种新的边坡稳定性因素敏感性分析方法—可靠度分析方法[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2010，29(10)：2 050–2 055.(WU Zhenjun，WANG Shuilin，TANG hua. A new sensitivity analysis approach for slope stability—reliability analysis method[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2010，29(10)：2 050–2 055.(in Chinese))
[35] 张贵金，徐卫亚. 岩土工程参数多重相关性的度量[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2004，23(7)：1 109–1 113.(ZHANG Guijin，XU Weiya. Determination of multicorrelation for property parameters of geotechnical engineering materials[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2004，23(7)：1 109–1 113.(in Chinese))
[36] SARKAR A，MUKHOPADHYAY A R，GHOSH S K. Issues in Pareto analysis and their resolution[J]. Total Quality Management and Business Excellence，2013，24(5/6)：641–651.
[37] BOX G E P，MEYER R D. An analysis for unreplicated fractional factorials[J]. Technometrics，1986，28(1)：11–18.
[38] 冯杭建，周爱国，唐小明，等. 浙江省泥石流灾害发育分布规律及区域预报[J]. 地球科学，2016，41(12)：2 088–2 099.(FENG Hangjian，ZHOU Aiguo，TANG Xiaoming，et al. Development and distribution characteristics of debris flow in Zhejiang province and its regional forecast[J]. Earth Science，2016，41(12)：2 088–2 099.(in Chinese))
[39] 张甘霖，王秋兵，张凤荣，等. 中国土壤系统分类土族和土系划分标准[J]. 土壤学报，2013，50(4)：826–834.(ZHANG Ganlin，WANG Qiubing，ZHANG Fengrong，et al. Critera for establishment of soil family and soil series in Chinese soil taxonomy[J]. Acta Pedologica Since，2013，50(4)：826–834.(in Chinese))
[40] KIM S W，CHUN K W，KIM M，et al. Effect of antecedent rainfall conditions and their variations on shallow landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds in South Korea[J]. Landslides，2021，18：569–582.
[41] MEJUTO M F，ANDREU J M，SÁNCHEZ E G，et al. An assessment of groundwater recharge at a regional scale for sustainable resource management：province of alicante(SE Spain)[J]. Water，2021，13(6)：862.
[42] MOTAMEDI M，LIANG R Y. Probabilistic landslide hazard assessment using Copula modeling technique[J]. Landslides，2013，11：565–573.
2023, Vol. 42 
