堰塞坝溃决判断及最终溃口形态分析

doi:10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2023.0075

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摘要判断堰塞坝是否溃决是应急处置的前提，确定最终溃口形态是洪峰预测的关键。收集了1654年至今49个包含自然溃决过程的堰塞坝案例，将处置后坝体看作“新坝体”，对获取的湖区及坝体数据分类，采用统计分析与试验研究相结合的方法，基于堰塞坝案例特点、溃决过程及机制分析筛选影响坝体是否溃决及最终溃口形态的参数，并提出快速判断方法。结果表明：坝体是否溃决与上游来流、湖区库容、坝体材料、坝体长高比相关，其中长高比对坝体是否溃决的影响只反映在由IV，V类材料组成的坝体上，且该影响受制于上游来流。垂向溃决程度主要与坝体材料、坝体长高比相关。基于上述影响参数及案例经验总结得到的坝体是否溃决预测及垂向溃决程度预测方法可满足应急处置的需要。此外，坝体非均质结构，尤其底部为“假基岩”的二元叠置及三元叠置结构对垂向溃决程度影响较大，考虑垂向材料的不均匀分布可提升溃口形态预测准确性。溃口宽度受垂向溃决程度影响，对于垂向大于1/2溃坝体，河道宽度对展宽的影响不可忽略。根据输沙平衡原理，考虑实际下泄水量及垂向切深，建立了不同垂向溃决程度下的溃口顶宽、底宽经验公式，并结合试验及现场各类坝体溃口展宽数据验证，回归分析样本决定系数R2均大于0.86。本研究实现了溃决判断及溃口预测研究的科学性、实用性和系统性的统一，研究结果补充了现有溃决预测模型中参数确定的理论依据，且基于有限数据得到的溃决快速评估方法可为假定参数类洪峰模型计算及现场决策者除险提供有效参考。

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	谈广鸣1
	王静雯1
	张冲2
	王锐2
	舒彩文1
	马子豪1
	章广越1
	韩沙沙3
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关键词 ：水利工程, 堰塞坝案例, 溃决, 统计分析, 垂向溃决程度, 溃口展宽

Abstract：Judgement regarding the possibility of a dam-break is critical for deciding whether engineering measures should be taken. Fast access to final breach geometry parameters is also essential for peak-flow prediction. In this study，data from 49 landslide cases and natural dam-breaks from the year of 1654 to the present were collected. Then，the landslide dams after emergency response were regarded as “new dams” according to on-site disposal measures，and data about their upstream lake and dam characteristics were re-classified. Then，statistical and test analysis were combined to select factors that influenced dam-break possibilities and final breach shape from case characteristics，dam-break process and mechanical analysis；the rapid prediction method was summarized. Results showed that the dam-break possibility was related to upstream inflow，barrier lake volume，dam materials and the length-to-height ratio. The influence of length-to-height ratio on the dam-break possibility was only reflected on the dam composed of Class IV and V materials，and this influence was constrained by upstream inflow. The vertical dam-break degree was found to be mainly related to the material of the dam and length-to-height ratio. Based on the above factors，two quick-judgment methods met the needs of predicting dam-break possibility and vertical dam-break degree were proposed during the emergency response process. In addition，the prediction error of the vertical dam-break degree is caused by a vertically inhomogeneous dam structure，especially the binary and ternary stacked structures with “pseudo bedrock” at the bottom. They exerted a significant impact on the vertical dam-break degree. Therefore，such uneven distribution should be considered to reduce the error in prediction. Furthermore，breach width was influenced by the vertical dam-break degree；when one-half of a dam was washed away vertically，the breach width was limited to the river width. From the principles of sediment transport，empirical formulas for calculating top and bottom breach width were derived based on actual discharge storage capacities and vertical erosion depth data obtained from model tests and field cases(R2＞0.86). This research combined scientific，practical and systematic aspects of dam-break prediction；the resulting rapid assessment methods can provide effective references for field decision-makers in preparing emergency plans and preparing peak-flow predictions by assuming suitable breach parameters.

Key words： hydraulic engineering landslide cases dam break statistical analysis vertical dam-break degree breach width

引用本文:

谈广鸣1，王静雯1，张冲2，王锐2，舒彩文1，马子豪1，章广越1，韩沙沙3，4. 堰塞坝溃决判断及最终溃口形态分析[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2024, 43(S1): 3413-3427.
TAN Guangming1，WANG Jingwen1，ZHANG Chong2，WANG Rui2，SHU Caiwen1，MA Zihao1，ZHANG Guangyue1，HAN Shasha3，4. Judgement and analysis of dam-break possibility and final breach shape. , 2024, 43(S1): 3413-3427.

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http://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/CN/10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2023.0075 或 http://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/CN/Y2024/V43/IS1/3413

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