贡山县进藏通道群发性滑坡地质特征与降雨阈值

doi:10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2023.0568

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摘要云南贡山县进藏通道降雨型滑坡频发，2020年5月有气象记录以来最大的强降雨诱发了群发性滑坡。为探讨进藏通道群发性滑坡地质特征、降雨阈值和预警方法，基于ArcGIS平台分析不同地质环境因子条件下群发性滑坡的分布特点，形成基于贝叶斯推断法和核密度估计法的滑坡降雨阈值和累积概率预警曲线构建方法，建立并讨论不同最短无雨间隔时间(SRIT)条件下贡山段公路滑坡降雨强度–持续时间阈值曲线。结果表明：浅表层滑动的群发性滑坡由2004～2020年同时段连续性最强、增速最快、峰值强度最大的极端降雨诱发；降雨阈值尺度参数和形状参数随SRIT增大而减小；特定区域SRIT存在上限值，大于该值时降雨阈值变异较大；诱发贡山段公路滑坡的降雨强度比持续时间更加重要；降雨阈值构建方法和预警方法具有合理性和客观性，SRIT为12 h (旱季)＋24 h(雨季)更适用于贡山段公路滑坡降雨阈值。

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关键词 ：边坡工程, 群发性滑坡, 降雨阈值, 最短无雨间隔时间

Abstract：Rainfall-induced landslides along roads towards Tibet are frequent in Gongshan County，Yunnan Province. Cluster landslides were triggered herein by the heaviest rainfall since the meteorological record in May，2020. Aiming at studying the geological features of these landslides，establishing rainfall threshold and early warning method，the distribution characteristics of cluster landslides were analyzed under the condition of different geological environment factors based on ArcGIS platform. The method for establishing rainfall threshold and cumulated probability early-warning curve based on Bayesian inference method and Kernel Density Estimation were developed. The rainfall intensity-duration threshold curves of road landslides close to Gongshan County under different shortest rainless interval times(SRIT) were established and discussed. The results demonstrate that the cluster landslides sliding in shallow layer are caused by the extreme rainfall characterized by the strongest continuity，fastest growth rate and highest peak intensity during the same period of 2004–2020. Size parameter and shape parameter of rainfall threshold decrease with increasing of SRIT. An upper limit of SRIT for establishing rainfall threshold exists in a specified region，when its value exceeded the variability of rainfall threshold is more significant. The rainfall intensity is more important than duration for road landslide triggering in Gongshan County. The established methods for rainfall threshold and early-warning are reasonable and objective. The SRIT of 12 h(dry season)＋24 h(rainly season) is more suitable for establishing rainfall threshold of Gongshan County.

Key words： slope engineering cluster landslides rainfall threshold shortest rainless interval time(SRIT)

引用本文:

陈贺1，2，3，付有旺2，3. 贡山县进藏通道群发性滑坡地质特征与降雨阈值[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2024, 43(S2): 3861-3871.
CHEN He1，2，3，FU Youwang2，3. Geological feature and rainfall threshold of cluster landslides along roads toward Tibet in Gongshan County，Yunnan Province，China. , 2024, 43(S2): 3861-3871.

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https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/CN/10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2023.0568 或 https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/CN/Y2024/V43/IS2/3861

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