基于诱发因素响应与支持向量机的阶跃式滑坡位移预测

doi:10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2014.0290

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摘要受库水位周期性调度和降雨的影响，三峡库区部分滑坡的位移变形呈台阶状。针对滑坡的这种变形特征，提出一种基于诱发因素响应分析的进化支持向量机位移预测模型：应用移动平均法将滑坡总位移分解为趋势项位移和周期项位移，趋势项位移变化受坡体地质条件控制，应用多项式函数进行预测；周期性位移变化受诱发因素联合控制，选取变形主导因素作为影响因子建立进化支持向量机模型进行预测；将分项位移预测值叠加即为总位移预测值。以库区典型阶跃式滑坡——八字门滑坡为例，应用进化支持向量机模型进行预测研究。结果表明：诱发因素响应分析是滑坡位移预测的关键；基于诱发因素响应的进化支持向量机耦合模型在阶跃式变形期有较好的预测效果，是一种行之有效的阶跃式滑坡位移预测方法。

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	周超1
	殷坤龙1
	曹颖1
	黄发明2

关键词 ：边坡工程, 位移预测, 进化支持向量机, 时间序列, 阶跃式滑坡

Abstract：Affected by the rainfall and the periodic scheduling of reservoir water，some of the landslides in Three Gorges Reservoir area show the obvious step-like deformation. According to the deformation characteristics of the step-like landslides，a GA-SVM model for displacement prediction based on the response analysis of inducing factors was proposed. The landslide displacement was decomposed into trend item and periodic item by the moving average method，and the trend term displacement was predicted by the polynomial function，which is controlled by geological conditions of the landslide. As the periodic displacement is controlled by the combined action of all the inducing factors，the dominant factors were selected to establish the GA-SVM model for landslide displacement prediction. The total prediction displacement was the addition of the two items. The typical step-like landslide-Bazimen landslide-was taken as an example to make a displacement prediction by the GA-SVM model. The results showed that，the response analysis of inducing factors was the essentiality of landslide displacement prediction. The GA-SVM model based on the response of inducing factors showed great prediction performance in the step-like deformation，which is an effective displacement prediction method for the step-like landslide.

Key words： slope engineering displacement prediction GA-SVM displacement-time series step-like landslide

引用本文:

周超1，殷坤龙1，曹颖1，黄发明2. 基于诱发因素响应与支持向量机的阶跃式滑坡位移预测[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2015, 34(S2): 4132-4139.
ZHOU Chao1，YIN Kunlong1，CAO Ying1，HUANG Faming2. DISPLACEMENT PREDICTION OF STEP-LIKE LANDSLIDE BASED ON THE RESPONSE OF INDUCING FACTORS AND SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE. , 2015, 34(S2): 4132-4139.

链接本文:

https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/CN/10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2014.0290 或 https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/CN/Y2015/V34/IS2/4132

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