Research on approximation method and discriminative criterion of the optimal probability distribution of geotechnical parameters
GONG Fengqiang1,2,HUANG Tianlang1,LI Xibing1,2
(1. School of Resources and Safety Engineering,Central South University,Changsha,Hunan 410083,China;2. Center for Advanced Study,Central South University,Changsha,Hunan 410083,China)
Abstract:In order to obtain the optimal probability distribution of geotechnical parameters,the non-negative characteristics of the parameter values was firstly considered and an integral distribution interval standard was determined,which was based on the“ ”principle and adjusted according to the skewness of sample data. The probability distribution functions of five groups of typical geotechnical parameters were inferred by using the typical distribution fitting method(TDF method),the maximum entropy method(ME method),the general polynomial approximation method(GP method),the orthogonal polynomial approximation method(OP method) and the normal information diffusion method(NID method). The Kolmogorov-Smirov testing method was used to assess the availability of those methods above. The availability of the probability distribution functions obtained with five methods were compared according to the testing values,the cumulative probability and the fitting function curves. The results show that the test values of four methods are generally lower than that of TDF method. And those four methods can overcome the shortcomings of the distribution with a single peak, reflect the fluctuation of the actual data distribution and meet the conditions that the cumulative value of probability is equal to 1. However,the test value of ME method is sometimes larger than that of TDF method,and the value of PDF at local distribution interval of distribution data will be less than zero for GP and OP methods. In contrast,the test value of NID method is the lowest and the cumulative probability value is always 1,and the fitting accuracy is the highest among all those methods. Finally,the criterion for judging the optimal probability distribution of geotechnical parameters is given.
宫凤强1,2,黄天朗1,李夕兵1,2. 岩土参数最优概率分布推断方法及判别准则的研究[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2016, 35(12): 2452-2460.
GONG Fengqiang1,2,HUANG Tianlang1,LI Xibing1,2. Research on approximation method and discriminative criterion of the optimal probability distribution of geotechnical parameters. , 2016, 35(12): 2452-2460.
[1] 唐小松,李典庆,周创兵,等. 样本数目对岩土体参数联合分布模型识别精度的影响[J]. 工程力学,2015,32(2):1–11.(TANG Xiaosong,LI Dianqing,ZHOU Chuangbing,et al. Effect of sample size on identification of a joint probability distribution underlying correlated geotechnical parameters[J]. Engineering Mechanics,2015,32(2):1–11.(in Chinese))
[2] KOSTAK B,BIELENSTEIN H U. Strength distribution in hard rock[J]. International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences and Geomechanics Abstracts,1971,8(5):501–521.
[3] 邓 建,李夕兵,古德生. 岩石力学参数概率分布的信息熵推断[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报,2004,23(13):2 177–2 181.(DENG Jian,LI Xibing,GU Desheng. Probability rock mechanics by using maximum entropy method[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2004,23(13):2 177–2 181.(in Chinese))
[4] 宫凤强,李夕兵,邓 建. 小样本岩土参数概率分布的正态信息扩散法推断[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报,2006,25(12):2 549–2 564. (GONG Fengqiang,LI Xibing,DENG Jian. Probability distribution of samples of geotechnical parameters using normal information spread method[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2006,25(12):2 549–2 564.(in Chinese))
[5] 宫凤强,侯尚骞,岩小明. 基于正态信息扩散原理的Mohr-Coulomb 强度准则参数概率模型推断方法[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报,2013,32(11):2 225–2 234.(GONG Fengqiang,HOU Shangqian,YAN Xiaoming. Probability model deduction method of Mohr-Coulomb criteria parameters based on normal information diffusion principle[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2013,32(11):2 225–2 234.(in Chinese))
[6] 苏永华,何满潮,孙晓明. 大子样岩土随机参数统计方法[J]. 岩土工程学报,2001,23(1):117–119.(SU Yonghua,HE Manchao,SUN Xiaoming. Approach on asymptotic approximations of polynomials for probability density function of geotechnics random parameters[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2001,23(1):117–119.(in Chinese))
[7] 宫凤强,李夕兵,邓 建. 岩土力学参数概率分布的切比雪夫多项式推断[J]. 计算力学学报,2006,23(6):722–727.(GONG Fengqiang,LI Xibing,DENG Jian. Assessment of probability distribution of mechanical parameters of rock and soil by using Chebyshev orthogonal polynomials[J]. Chinese Journal of Computational Mechanics,2006,23(6):722–727.(in Chinese))
[8] LI X B,GONG F Q. A method for fitting probability distributions to engineering properties of rock masses using Legendre orthogonal polynomials[J]. Structural Safety,2009,31(4):335–343.
[9] 张博庭. 用有限比较法进行拟合优度检验[J]. 岩土工程学报,1991,13(6):84–91.(ZHANG Boting. Test of goodness of fit using finite comparison method[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,1991,13(6):84–91.(in Chinese))
[10] SIDDAL J N. Probabilistic engineering design:principles and applications[M]. New York:Marcel Dekker Inc.,1983:322–323.
[11] PANDEY M D. Direct estimation of quantile functions using the maximum entropy principle[J]. Structural Safety,2000,22(1):61–79.
[12] HUANG C F. Information diffusion techniques and small-sample problem[J]. International Journal of and Decision Making,2002,1(2):229–249.
[13] 黄崇福. 自然灾害风险评价理论与实践[M]. 北京:科学出版社,2005:76–89.(HUANG Chongfu. Theory and practice of risk assessment of natural disasters[M]. Beijing:Science Press,2005:76–89.(in Chinese))
[14] 王新洲. 基于信息扩散原理的估计理论、方法及其抗差性[J]. 武汉测绘科技大学学报,1999,24(3):240–244.(WANG Xinzhou. The theory,method and robustness of the parameter estimation based on the principle of information spread[J]. Journal of Wuhan Technical University of Surveying and Mapping,1999,24(3):240–244.(in Chinese))
[15] GONG F Q,HUANG T L. Sample size effect on the probability distribution fitting accuracy of random variable by using normal diffusion estimation method-compared with normal distribution[C]// Proceedings of the 6th Asian-Pacific Symposium on Structural Reliability and its Applications. Shanghai:Tongji University Press,2016:199–204.
[16] 李红英,谭月虎,赵 辉. 某滑坡体岩土参数概率分布统计分析方法研究[J]. 地下空间与工程学报,2012,8(3):659–665.(LI Hongying,TAN Yuehu,ZHAO Hui. The statistical analysis technique researchon probability distribution of geotechnical parameters of one landslide[J]. Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering,2012,8(3):659–665.(in Chinese))
[17] 姚多喜,卢海峰,邵亚红. 煤层底板岩体参数概率分布及Bayes优化[J]. 安徽理工大学学报:自然科学版,2014,34(4):15–18.(YAO Duoxi,LU Haifeng,SHAO Yahong. Probability distribution fittingand bayes optimization of rock mass parameters of coal measure strata[J]. Journal of Anhui University of Science and Technology:Natural Science,2014,34(4):15–18.(in Chinese))
[18] 鲁燕儿,刘 勇. 岩体错动带抗剪强度参数的Beta概率分布[J]. 地下空间与工程学报,2014,10(6):1 250–1 256.(LU Yaner,LIU Yong. Beta probability distribution of shear strength parameters of weakness interlayers in rockmass[J]. Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering,2014,10(6):1 250–1 256.(in Chinese))
[19] 姜立春,杜卫卫. 受酸腐蚀岩体强度分布特征研究[J]. 昆明理工大学学报:理工版,2010,35(4):6–10.(JIANG Lichun,DU Weiwei. Distribution characteristics of rock mass strength subjected to acid attack[J]. Journal of Kunming University of Science and Technology:Science and Technology,2010,35(4):6–10.(in Chinese))
[20] 高大钊. 土力学可靠性原理[M]. 北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1989:129–130.(GAO Dazhao. Soil mechanics reliability principle[M]. Beijing:China Architecture and Building Press,1989:129–130.(in Chinese))
[21] 张 明. 结构可靠度分析——方法与程序[M]. 北京:科学出版社,2009:89–97.(ZHANG Ming. Structural reliability analysis—methods and procedures[M]. Beijing:Science Press,2009:89–97.(in Chinese))