基于蒙特卡洛模拟的岩质边坡可靠度设计方法

doi:10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2014.1210

摘要
图/表
参考文献(29)
相关文章 (15)

全文: PDF (3345 KB) HTML (1 KB)
输出: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)

摘要提出一种基于蒙特卡洛模拟的岩质边坡可靠度设计方法，建立基于蒙特卡洛模拟的岩质边坡可靠度设计实用框架，将设计过程分成4个独立的子模块，整个设计过程清晰明了，便于工程师理解和掌握，在设计中允许工程师根据工程经验和实际工况灵活地调整目标失效概率和不确定性参数的概率模型。通过香港秀茂坪岩质天然边坡说明所提出的方法和设计框架，结果表明：(1) 根据提出的方法通过执行一次MCS得到的设计空间内所有方案的失效概率与对每个设计方案重复执行MCS得到的失效概率十分一致，验证了所提出的方法的有效性；(2) 目标失效概率以及不确定性参数的变异性和相关性显著影响边坡的最终设计方案，这种影响可以通过提出的方法合理地考虑到岩质边坡可靠度设计中；(3) 在工程实际中，高估不确定性参数的变异性和忽略不确定性参数间的负相关性，均导致高估边坡稳定安全系数的标准差，进而低估边坡可靠度指标，导致相对保守的设计，偏于安全；然而，忽略不确定性参数间的正相关性则可能导致相反的结果，设计偏于不安全。

	服务

	把本文推荐给朋友
	加入我的书架
	加入引用管理器
	E-mail Alert
	RSS
	作者相关文章
	彭兴1
	2
	李典庆1
	2
	曹子君1
	2
	唐小松1
	2
	周创兵1
	2
	3

关键词 ：边坡工程, 岩质边坡, 不确定性, 蒙特卡洛模拟, 可靠度设计, 相关性

Abstract：This paper develops a reliability-based design(RBD) approach for rock slopes based on Monte Carlo simulation(MCS)，and proposed a practical design framework that is comprised of four design modules. Under the proposed design framework，the design process of MCS-based RBD of rock slopes is transparent and accessible to geotechnical practitioners so that they can make assumptions deemed appropriate for a specific site and have flexibility to adjust the target failure probability and uncertainty model. The proposed approach and design framework are illustrated using the Sau Mau Ping rock slope in Hong Kong. Results show that：(1) The failure probabilities of possible designs obtained from a single run of MCS in the proposed approach agree well with those obtained using repeated runs of MCS for different designs，which validates the proposed approach. (2) The target failure probability and uncertainty modeling may affect the final designs significantly. Such effects can be taken into account in RBD of rock slopes through the proposed approach in a rational manner. (3) In design practice，overestimation of the variability of uncertain parameters or ignoring the negative correlation between them might lead to overestimation of standard deviation of safety factor and，hence，underestimation of reliability index，which subsequently results in conservative designs. On the other hand，ignoring the positive correlation between uncertain parameters might lead to overestimation of reliability index and unsafe designs.

Key words： slope engineering rock slope uncertainty Monte Carlo simulation reliability-based design correlation

引用本文:

彭兴1，2，李典庆1，2，曹子君1，2，唐小松1，2，周创兵1，2，3. 基于蒙特卡洛模拟的岩质边坡可靠度设计方法[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2016, 35(S2): 3794-3805.
PENG Xing1，2，LI Dianqing1，2，CAO Zijun1，2，TANG Xiaosong1，2，ZHOU Chuangbing1，2，3. Reliability-based design approach of rock slopes using Monte Carlo simulation. , 2016, 35(S2): 3794-3805.

链接本文:

https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/CN/10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2014.1210 或 https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/CN/Y2016/V35/IS2/3794

[1] EL-RAMLY H，MORGENSTERN N R，CRUDEN D M. Probabilistic slope stability analysis for practice[J]. Canadian Geotechnical Journal，2002，39(3)：665–683.

[2] 中华人民共和国行业标准编写组. SL386—2007 水利水电工程边坡设计规范[S]. 北京：中国水利水电出版社，2007.(The Professional Standards Compilation Group of People¢s Republic of China. SL386—2007 Design code for engineered slopes in water resources and hydropower projects[S]. Beijing：China Water Power Press，2007.(in Chinese))

[3] DUNCAN J M. Factors of safety and reliability in geotechnical engineering[J]. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering，2000，126(4)：307–316.

[4] ORR T L L，FARRELL E R. Geotechnical design to Eurocode 7[M]. London：Springer，1999：16–35.

[5] BECKER D E. Eighteenth Canadian geotechnical colloquium：Limit states design for foundations. Part II. Development for the national building code of Canada[J]. Canadian Geotechnical Journal，1997，33(6)：984–1 007.

[6] HONJO Y， KUSAKABE O. Proposal of a comprehensive foundation design code： Geo-code 21 ver. 2[C]// Proceedings of the International Workshop on Foundation Design Codes and Soil Investigation in View of International Harmonization and Performance Based Design. 2002：95–101.

[7] PANTELIDIS L，GRIFFITHS D V. Integrating Eurocode 7 (load and resistance factor design) using nonconventional factoring strategies in slope stability analysis[J]. Canadian Geotechnical Journal，2013，51(2)：208–216.

[8] SALGADO R，KIM D. Reliability analysis of load and resistance factor design of slopes[J]. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering，2013，140(1)：57–73.

[9] BASHA B M，MOGHAL A A B. Load resistance factor design(LRFD) approach for reliability based seismic design of rock slopes against wedge failures[C]// Geo-Congress 2013@ Stability and Performance of Slopes and Embankments III. ASCE，2013：582–591.

[10] LOEHR J E，FINLEY C A，HUACO D. Procedures for design of earth slopes using LRFD[R]. Columbia：University of Missouri，2005.

[11] WANG Y，AU S K，KULHAWY F H. Expanded reliability-based design approach for drilled shafts[J]. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering，2011，137(2)：140–149.

[12] WANG L，HWANG J H，JUANG C H，et al. Reliability-based design of rock slopes—A new perspective on design robustness[J]. Engineering Geology，2013，154：56–63.

[13] WANG Y. Reliability-based design of spread foundations by Monte Carlo simulations[J]. Geotechnique，2011，61(8)：677–685.

[14] WANG Y，CAO Z. Expanded reliability-based design of piles in spatially variable soil using efficient Monte Carlo simulations[J]. Soils and Foundations，2013，53(6)：820–834.

[15] TAMIMI S，AMADEI B，FRANGOPOL D M. Monte Carlo simulation of rock slope reliability[J]. Computers and Structures，1989，33(6)：1 495–1 505.

[16] WANG Y，CAO Z，AU S K. Practical reliability analysis of slope stability by advanced Monte Carlo simulations in a spreadsheet[J]. Canadian Geotechnical Journal，2010，48(1)：162–172.

[17] 谭晓慧. 边坡稳定可靠度分析方法的探讨[J]. 重庆大学学报：自然科学版，2001，24(6)：40–44.(TAN Xiaohui. Discussion of reliability analysis methods of slope stability[J]. Journal of Chongqing University：Natural Science，2001，24(6)：40–44.(in Chinese))

[18] 李育超，凌道盛，陈云敏，等. 蒙特卡洛法与有限元相结合分析边坡稳定性[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2005，24(11)：1 933–1 941.(LI Yuchao，LING Daosheng，CHEN Yunmin，et al. Slope stability analysis using Monte Carlo technique with fem[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2005，24(11)：1 933–1 941.(in Chinese))

[19] 吴振君，王水林，葛修润. 约束随机场下的边坡可靠度随机有限元分析方法[J]. 岩土力学，2009，30(10)：3 086–3 092.(WU Zhenjun，WANG Shuilin，GE Xiurun. Slope reliability analysis by random FEM under constraint random field[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics，2009，30(10)：3 086–3 092.(in Chinese))

[20] ANG A H S，TANG W H. Probability concepts in engineering planning and design：emphasis on applications in civil and environmental engineering[M]. New York：Wiley，2007：199–244，346–381.

[21] HOEK E. Practical rock engineering[M]. North Vancouver：Evert Hoek Consulting Engineer Inc，2006：110–124.

[22] LOW B K. Reliability analysis of rock slopes involving correlated nonnormals[J]. International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences，2007，44(6)：922–935.

[23] LOW B K. Efficient probabilistic algorithm illustrated for a rock slope[J]. Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering，2008，41(5)：715–734.

[24] LI D Q，CHEN Y F，LU W B，et al. Stochastic response surface method for reliability analysis of rock slopes involving correlated non-normal variables[J]. Computers and Geotechnics，2011，38(1)：58–68.

[25] 李典庆，周创兵，陈益峰，等. 边坡可靠度分析的随机响应面法及程序实现[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2010，29(8)：1 513–1 523.(LI Dianqing，ZHOU Chuangbing，CHEN Yifeng，et al. Reliability analysis of slope using stochastic response surface method and code implementation[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2010，29(8)：1 513–1 523.(in Chinese))

[26] LEE Y F，CHI Y Y，JUANG C H，et al. Reliability analysis of rock wedge stability：knowledge-based clustered partitioning approach[J]. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering，2011，138(6)：700–708.

[27] CHRISTIAN J T，LADD C C，BAECHER G B. Reliability applied to slope stability analysis[J]. Journal of Geotechnical Engineering，1994，120(12)：2 180–2 207.

[28] HASSAN A M，WOLFF T F. Search algorithm for minimum reliability index of earth slopes[J]. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering，1999，125(4)：301–308.

[29] 李东升，刘东燕. 边坡可靠度风险评价分析[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报，2005，16(2)：150–153.(LI Dongsheng，LIU Dongyan. Analysis of slope reliability and damage risk evaluation approach[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control，2005，16(2)：150–153.(in Chinese))