Investigations of the rock mass structure and disaster prediction model of slopes in the Fushun west open pit mine
SUN Shuwei1, HU Jiabing1, LIU Liu1, LI Yuan1, LI Guojun2
(1. School of Energy and Mining Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology(Beijing), Beijing 100083, China;
2. School of Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, Jiangsu 221116, China)
Abstract：Based on the characteristics of extensive areas and complex rock structures in open-pit mining, this study investigates the rock structure, disaster characteristics, and disaster prediction model of the slopes in the Fushun west open pit mine. Considering the relationship between the orientation of rock layers, the mining site, the distribution of structural planes, and the degree of rock weathering, the rock mass structure of the slopes was classified into four categories: anti-dip layered structure, bedding structure, fractured rock mass structure, and soil-like rock mass structure. A survey and statistical analysis of slope disasters that occurred in the Fushun west open pit mine over the past decades were conducted. Slope failures were categorized into three types: sliding, toppling, and collapse. Among these, sliding disasters accounted for 65.04% of the total surveyed incidents, toppling disasters accounted for 10.57%, and collapse disasters accounted for 24.39%. A general model for disaster prediction in mining areas was established based on an understanding of the rock mass structure and disaster characteristics of the slopes in the Fushun west open pit mine. The model utilized the Verhulst inverse function curve to characterize the displacement-time relationship of monitoring points, with model parameters iteratively solved using the gradient descent method. Displacement rates of 10 mm/h and 5 mm/h at monitoring points were established as criteria for the near-failure states of soft and hard rock slopes, respectively. The applicability and accuracy of the established prediction model were verified through typical disaster cases. Furthermore, it is emphasized that slope disaster prediction should adhere to function approximation methodologies, where the completeness of data directly correlates with the prediction accuracy of disaster occurrence timing. The research findings provide valuable reference and guidance for the identification, monitoring, early warning, and safety prevention of slope disasters in open-pit mines.
孙书伟1，胡家冰1，刘 流1，李 圆1，李国君2. 抚顺西露天矿边坡岩体结构与灾害预报模型研究[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2025, 44(7): 1695-1708.
SUN Shuwei1, HU Jiabing1, LIU Liu1, LI Yuan1, LI Guojun2. Investigations of the rock mass structure and disaster prediction model of slopes in the Fushun west open pit mine. , 2025, 44(7): 1695-1708.
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2025, Vol. 44 
