基于未确知测度–直觉模糊集的岩爆烈度预测研究

doi:10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2019.0454

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摘要岩爆是深部地下工程主要安全隐患之一，为了有效处理岩爆烈度预测过程中的模糊信息，建立基于未确知测度–直觉模糊集的岩爆烈度预测模型。选取岩石的单轴抗压强度、岩石的压拉比 / 、岩石的应力系数、岩石的弹性变形指数Wet、岩体的完整性系数Kv为岩爆预测指标。首先利用未确知测度的单指标测度函数处理岩爆指标测度值，得到基于直觉模糊集的指标模糊隶属度，并构建单指标直觉模糊集评价矩阵。然后综合多种主、客观赋权法，构建多源权重的直觉模糊集权重向量，从而获得样本的得分值与岩爆烈度等级。最后，基于直觉模糊集对指标权重模糊性进行分析，得到指标权重变化对岩爆预测结果的影响。将模型应用于20组国内外典型岩爆案例，并将预测结果与实际岩爆情况及其他3种模型的结果对比。研究结果表明，基于未确知测度–直觉模糊集的岩爆烈度预测模型的预测结果与实际情况吻合，指标权重波动敏感性与权重大小无关。该模型提高了岩爆预测的模糊信息表示能力，降低了样本质量对岩爆预测模型的影响。

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	邬书良1
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	杨珊3
	霍亮1
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关键词 ：岩石力学, 岩爆烈度预测, 未确知测度, 直觉模糊集, 多源权重, 模糊性分析

Abstract：Rock burst is one of the main hidden safety hazards in deep underground engineering. In order to effectively deal with the fuzzy information in the process of rock burst intensity prediction，a prediction model of rock burst intensity based on unascertained measure-intuitionistic fuzzy set was established. Five indices including uniaxial compressive strength of rock ，the ratio of rock's compressive-tensile strength ，the stress coefficient of rock ，the elastic energy index of rock Wet and integrality coefficient Kv were chosen as the prediction index of rock burst. Firstly，the single index measure function of unascertained measure theory was used to deal with the measured value of rock burst index to obtain the fuzzy membership degree of index based on intuitionistic fuzzy set and construct the evaluation matrix of single index intuitionistic fuzzy. Then，by synthesizing various subjective and objective weighting methods，the intuitionistic fuzzy set weight vector of multi-source weights was constructed，and the score value of samples and the rock burst intensity grade were gained. Finally，the influence of index weight on rock burst prediction results was obtained by analyzing the fuzziness of index weight based on intuitionistic fuzzy sets. The established model was applied to 20 typical rock burst cases at home and abroad，and the predicted results were compared with the actual rock burst cases and the predicted results of three other models. The results show that the prediction results of the prediction model of rock burst intensity based on unascertained measure-intuitionistic fuzzy set are consistent with the actual situation，and the sensitivity of index weight fluctuation is independent of the weight value. The established model improves the fuzzy information representation ability of rock burst prediction and reduces the influence of sample quality on rock burst prediction model.

Key words： rock mechanics rock burst intensity prediction uncertain measure intuitionistic fuzzy set multi-source weight fuzzy analysis

引用本文:

邬书良1，2，3，杨珊3，霍亮1，2. 基于未确知测度–直觉模糊集的岩爆烈度预测研究[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2020, 39(S1): 2930-2939.
WU Shuliang1，2，3，YANG Shan3，HUO Liang1，2. Prediction of rock burst intensity based on unascertained measure-intuitionistic fuzzy set. , 2020, 39(S1): 2930-2939.

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http://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/CN/10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2019.0454 或 http://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/CN/Y2020/V39/IS1/2930

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