Abstract：The laws and prediction of surface subsidence induced by jointed rock excavation are investigated based on the measured data of surface subsidence caused by tunnel excavation in the connection point of Qingdao Jiaozhou bay tunnel. Geological and mathematical models that considering the joint geometric forms are established. Using stochastic medium theory，probability of rock falling totally after unit excavation is analyzed. Meanwhile，probability distribution function of surface rock is deduced and settlement prediction formula of rock unit is established. According to the convergent monitoring results around the hole，sedimentation coefficient of rock unit is back analyzed by which surface subsidence caused by tunnel excavation on the field is forecasted. Results show that the surface subsidence rules caused by the shallow large-span hardrock tunnel excavation conform to the laws of discrete binomial distribution. The Gamma distribution prediction model is used when n≥10. Results from the model prediction agree well with those actual monitoring data of surface subsidence that caused by the Qingdao city subway tunnel excavation. The proposed model provides some insights for designing and construction monitoring.
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2014, Vol. 33 
