概率性地震滑坡危险性区划方法及其应用

doi:10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2015.0118

摘要
图/表
参考文献(56)
相关文章 (15)

全文: PDF (1950 KB) HTML (1 KB)
输出: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)

摘要未来地震的发生具有一定的随机性，以研究区遭受一定超越概率水平地震动作用所开展的滑坡危险性区划，忽视了部分潜在发生的地震的影响，是一种条件概率下的危险性区划。基于概率地震危险性分析及Newmark累积位移评估模型，以滑坡概率为危险性指标，提出一种考虑潜在地震影响的概率性地震滑坡危险性区划新方法，并可对震源机制、场地类型及地形高度的影响进行修正。以天水研究区为例，采用第五代地震动参数区划图的潜在震源区划分方案，结合研究区工程地质岩性分组及地形高程数据，对研究区未来50 a内地震滑坡危险性进行区划，结果表明地震滑坡中、高危险区主要集中于黄土覆盖或泥岩出露且斜坡坡度大于30°的地区，其中又以渭河及其支流藉河、牛头河两岸部分地区的地震滑坡危险性较高，对天水市区周边及陇海铁路线构成威胁。

	服务

	把本文推荐给朋友
	加入我的书架
	加入引用管理器
	E-mail Alert
	RSS
	作者相关文章
	刘甲美1
	高孟潭1
	吴树仁2

关键词 ：边坡工程, 地震滑坡, 危险性, 区划, Newmark模型

Abstract：Earthquake is a random process. Recent landslide hazard analyses were carried out based on ground motions with given probability of exceedance，ignoring the impact of some potential earthquakes，representing a conditional probability of earthquake induced landslides. This paper presents a new method for potential seismic landslide hazard zonation at regional scale in terms of landslide probability. It is based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and Newmark’s displacement model，incorporating the effects of focal mechanism，site condition and topography. We applied this method to Tianshui study area and generated a regional seismic landslide probability hazard map in 50 years，combining the potential seismic source zones which were used for the new generation seismic zonation map of China，empirical engineering geology lithology formations，and topographic slop data. The results show that the high hazard zones mainly concentrated at the loess or mudstone areas with slope greater than 30 degree，especially on the banks of Wei River，Xi River and Niutou Revier，posing a threat to Longhai Railway line and the surrounding of Tianshui city.

Key words： slope engineering seismic landslide hazard zonation Newmarks model

引用本文:

刘甲美1，高孟潭1，吴树仁2. 概率性地震滑坡危险性区划方法及其应用[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2016, 35(S1): 3100-3110.
LIU Jiamei1，GAO Mengtan1，WU Shuren2. Probabilistic seismic landslide hazard zonation method and its application. , 2016, 35(S1): 3100-3110.

链接本文:

https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/CN/10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2015.0118 或 https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/CN/Y2016/V35/IS1/3100

[1]	宋利萍，沈克金. 甘肃中东部地震滑坡灾害的机制与预防[J].高原地震，2007，19(3)：50-53.(SONG Liping，SHEN Kejin. The mechanisms and characteristics of earthquake landslips in middle-eastern area in Gansu province[J]. Plateau Earthquake Research，2007，19(3)：50-53.(in Chinese))
[2]	孙萍，殷跃平，吴树仁，等. 高速远程地震黄土滑坡发生机制试验研究[J].工程地质学报，2009，17(4)：449-455.(SUN Ping，YIN Yueping，WU Shuren，et al. An experimental study on the initiation mechanism of rapid and long run-out loess landslide caused by 1920 haiyuan earthquake[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology，2009，17(4)：449-455.(in Chinese))
[3]	吴树仁，石菊松，姚鑫，等. 四川汶川地震地质灾害活动强度分析评价[J]. 地质通报，2009，27(11)：1900-1906.(WU Shuren，SHI Jusong，YAO Xin，et al. Analysis and evaluation of geohazard intensity of the Wenchuan earthquake，Sichuan，China[J]. Geological Bulletin of China，2009，27(11)：1900-1906.(in Chinese))
[4]	FELL R，COROMINAS J，BONNARD C，et al. Guidelines for landslide susceptibility，hazard and risk zoning for land-use planning[J]. Engineering Geology，2008，102(3)：99-111.
[5]	吴树仁，石菊松，张春山，等. 地质灾害风险评估技术指南初论[J]. 地质通报，2009，28(8)：995-1005.(WU Shuren，SHI Jusong，ZHANG Chunshan，et al. Preliminary discussion on technical guideline for geohazard risk assessment[J].Geological Bulletin of China，2009，28(8)：995-1005.(in Chinese))
[6]	鲍叶静，高孟潭，姜慧. 地震诱发滑坡的概率分析[J].岩土力学与工程学报，2005，24(1)：66-70.(BAO Yejing，GAO Mengtan，JIANG Hui. Probabilistic analysis of earthquake-induced landslides[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2005，24(1)：66-70.(in Chinese))
[7]	王亚强，王兰民，张小曳. GIS 支持下的黄土高原地震滑坡区划研究[J]. 地理科学，2004，24(2)：170-176.(WANG Yaqiang，WANG Lanmin，ZHANG Xiaoye. GIS based seismic landslide zonation of the loess plateau[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica，2004，24(2)：170-176.(in Chinese))
[8]	陈晓利，冉洪流，王明明. 潜在地震滑坡危险区区划方法[J]. 地球物理学报，2012，55(4)：1269-1277.(CHEN Xiaoli，RAN Hongliu，WANG Mingming. Hazards zonation for potential earthquake-induced landslide area[J]. Chinese Journal of Geophys，2012，55(4)：1269- 1277.(in Chinese))
[9]	GAUDIO V D，WASOWSKIC J. Time probabilistic evaluation of seismically induced landslide hazard in Irpinia[J]. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering，2004，24(12)：915-928.
[10]	JIBSON R W，MICHAEL J A. Maps showing seismic landslide hazards in Anchorage，Alaska：U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Map 3077，scale 1：25，000[OL]. Available at http：//pubs.usgs.gov/sim/3077，2009.
[11]	NEWMARK N M. Effects of earthquakes on dams and embankments[J]. Geotechnique，1965，15(2)：139-160.
[12]	JIBSON R W. Predicting earthquake-induced landslide displacements using Newmark's sliding block analysis[J]. Transportation Research Record，1993，1441：9-17.
[13]	JIBSON R W，HARP，E L，MICHAEL J A. A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps[J]. Engineering Geology，2000，58(3)：271-289.
[14]	GODT J，SENER B，VERDIN K，et al. Rapid assessment of earthquake-induced landsliding[C]//Proceedings of the First World Landslide Forum. Tokyo：[s.n.]，2008：219-222.
[15]	陈晓利，袁仁茂，庾露. Newmark方法在芦山地震诱发滑坡分布预测研究中的应用[J].地震地质，2013，35(3)：661-670.(CHEN Xiaoli，YUAN Renmao，YU Lu. Applying the new mark¢s model to the assessment of earthquake-triggered landslides during the Lushan earthquake[J]. Seismology and Geology，2013，35(3)：661-670.(in Chinese))
[16]	王涛，吴树仁，石菊松，等.基于简化Newmark位移模型的区域地震滑坡危险性快速评估——以汶川Ms8.0 级地震为例[J]. 工程地质学报，2013，21(1)：16-24.(WANG Tao，WU Shuren，SHI Jusong，et al. Case study on rapid assessment of regional seismic landslide hazard based on simplified Newmark displacement model：Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake[J].Journal of Engineering Geology，2013，21(1)：16-24.(in Chinese))
[17]	葛华，陈启国，王德伟. 地震滑坡危险性评价及编图—以映秀震中区为例[J]. 中国地质，2013，40(2)：644-652.(GE Hua，CHENG Qiguo，WANG Dewei. The assessment and mapping of seismic landslide hazards：A case study of Yingxiu area，Sichuan Province[J]. Geology in China，2013，40(2)：644-652.(in Chinese))
[18]	洪海春，徐卫亚.地震作用下岩质边坡稳定性分析综述[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报，2005，24(增1)：4827-4836.(HONG Haichun，XU Weiya. Review on the stability of rock slopes under seismic loading[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering，2005，24(Supp.1)：4827-4836.(in Chinese))
[19]	高孟潭. 地震危险性分析方法概述[J]. 国际地震动态，1986，(11)：10-13.(GAO Mengtan. An outline of the analytic methods for seismic risk assessment[J]. Recent Developments in World Seismology，1986，(11)：10-13.(in Chinese))
[20]	高孟潭. 关于地震年平均发生率问题的探讨[J].国际地震动态，1988，(1)：1-5.(GAO Mengtan. Discussion of annual mean seismic incidence rate[J]. Recent Developments in World Seismology，1988，(1)：1-5.(in Chinese))
[21]	胡聿贤. 地震安全性评价技术教程[M]. 北京：地震出版，1999：222-224.(HU Yuxian. Tutorial of seismic safety evaluation technique[M]. Beijing：Earthquake Press，1999：222-224.(in Chinese))
[22]	胥广银，高孟潭.潜在地震破裂面源模型及在概率地震危险性分析中的应用方法[J].地震学报，2007，29(3)：285-294.(XU Guangyin，GAO Mengtan. Potential rupture surface model and its application on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica，2007，29(3)：285-294.(in Chinese))
[23]	徐伟进，高孟潭. 以空间光滑的地震活动性模型为空间分布函数的地震危险性分析方法[J]. 地震学报，2012，34(4)：526-536.(XU Weijin，GAO Mengtan. Seismic hazard estimate using spatially smoothed seismicity model as spatial distribution function[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica，2012，34(4)：526-536.(in Chinese))
[24]	AMBRASEYS N N，MENU J M. Earthquake-induced ground displacements[J]. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics，1988，16(7)：985-1006.
[25]	JIBSON R W. Regression models for estimating coseismic landslide displacement[J]. Engineering Geology，2007，91(2)：209-218.
[26]	SAYGILI G，RATHJE E M. Empirical predictive models for earthquake-induced sliding displacements of slopes[J]. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering，2008，134(6)：790-803.
[27]	RATHJE E M，SAYGILI G. Probabilistic assessment of earthquake-induced sliding displacements of natural slopes[J]. Bulletin of the New Zealand Society of Earthquake Engineering，2009，42(1)：18-27.
[28]	徐光兴，姚令侃，李朝红，等.基于汶川地震强震动记录的边坡永久位移预测模型[J]. 岩土工程学报，2012，34(6)：1131-1136.(XU Guangxing，YAO Lingkan，LI Chaohong，et al. Predictive models for permanent displacement of slopes based on recorded strong-motion data of Wenchuan Earthquake[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering，2012，34(6)：1131-1136.(in Chinese))
[29]	胥广银. 潜在震源三维空间模型及其在地震危险性概率分析中的应用研究[博士学位论文][D]. 北京：中国地震局地球物理研究所，2003.(XU Guangyin. Study on 3-d potential seismic source models and their applications on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis[Ph. D. Thesis][D]. Beijing：Institute of Geophysics China Earthquake Administration，2003.(in Chinese))
[30]	WU J，GAO M，CHEN K，et al. Discussion on the influence of truncation of ground motion residual distribution on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment[J]. Earthquake Engineering and EngineeringVibration，2011，10(3)：379-392.
[31]	刘小丰，潘保田，高红山，等. 天水黄土沉积特征与环境变化[J].中国沙漠，2007，27(3)：373-378.(LIU Xiaofeng，PAN Baogtian，GAO Hongshan，et al. Loess deposit feature and environmental change in tianshui，Gansu province[J]. Journal of Desert Research，2007，27(3)：373-378.(in Chinese))
[32]	白启圣，王之佩. 甘肃天水地区 1654 年罗家堡 7 1/2 级地震构造背景的初步分析[J]. 西北地震学报，1984，6(1)：65-71.(BAI Qisheng，WANG Zhipei. Elementary analysis of geotectonic background for 1654 lojiapo earthquake(Ms=(7 1/2))in the Tianshui area，Gansu province[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal，1984，6(1)：65-71.(in Chinese))
[33]	袁道阳，雷中生，葛伟鹏，等. 对143年甘谷西7级地震史料的新见解[J]. 西北地震学报，2007，29(1)：58-63.(YUAN Daoyang，LEI Zhongsheng，GE Weipeng，et al. A new opinion about the west of Gangu M7.0 earthquake in 143 A.D. in Gansu Province[J]. Northwestern Seismological Journal，2007，29(1)：58-63.(in Chinese))
[34]	雷中生，袁道阳，葛伟鹏，等. 734 年天水 7 级地震考证与发震构造分析[J]. 地震地质，2007，29(1)：51-62.(LEI Zhongsheng，YUAN Daoyang，GE Weipeng，et al. Textual research on the Tianshui M 7 earthquake in 734 ad and analysis of its causative structure[J]. Seismology and Geology，2007，29(1)：51-62.(in Chinese))
[35]	高孟潭，卢寿德. 关于下一代地震区划图编制原则与关键技术的初步探讨[J]. 震灾防御技术，2006，1(1)：1-6.(GAO Mengtan，LU Shoude. The discussion on principles of seismic zonation of the next generation[J]. Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention，2006，1(1)：1-6.(in Chinese))
[36]	潘华，高孟潭，谢富仁. 新版地震区划图地震活动性模型与参数确定[J]. 震灾防御技术，2013，8(1)：11-23.(PAN Hua，GAO Mengtan，XIE Furen. The earthquake activity model and seismicity parameters in the new seismic hazard map of China[J]. Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention，2013，8(1)：11-23.(in Chinese))
[37]	周本刚，陈国星，高战武，等. 新地震区划图潜在震源区划分的主要技术特色[J]. 震灾防御技术，2013，8(2)：113-124.(ZHOU Bengang，CHEN Guoxing，GAO Zhanwu，et al. The technical highlights in identifying the potential seismic sources for the update of national seismic zoning map of China[J]. Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention，2013，8(2)：113-124.(in Chinese))
[38]	KEEFER D K. Landslides caused by earthquakes[J].Geological Soiciety of America Bulletin，1984，95(4)：406-421.
[39]	辛鸿博，王余庆. 岩土边坡地震崩滑及其初判准则[J]. 岩土工程学报，1999，21(5)：591-594.(XIN Hongbo，WANG Yuqing. Earthquake-induced landslide and avalanche[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering，1999，21(5)：591-594.(in Chinese))
[40]	丁彦慧，王余庆，孙金忠，等. 地震崩滑预测方法及其工程应用研究[J]. 工程地质学报，2000，8(4)：475-480.(DING Yanhui，WANG Yuqing，SUN Jinzhong，et al. Research on the method for prediction of earthquake-induced landslides and its application to engineering projects[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology，2000，8(4)：475-480.(in Chinese))
[41]	ARIAS A. A measure of earthquake intensity[C]// HANSEN R J ed. Proceedings of the Seismic Design for Nuclear Power Plants. Cambridge，Mass：MIT Press，1970：438-483.
[42]	HARP E L，WILSON R C.Shaking intensity thresholds for rock falls and slides：Evidence from 1987 Whittier Narrows and Superstition Hills earthquake strong-motion records[J].Bulletin of the SeismologicalSociety of America，1995，85(6)：1739-1757.
[43]	BRAY J D，TRAVASAROU T.Simplified procedure for estimating earthquake induced deviatoric slope displacements[J]. Journal of Geotechnicaland Geoenvironmental Engineering，2007，133(4)：381-392.
[44]	王秀英，聂高众，马牧军.地震滑坡灾害评估中地震影响因素的联合应用[J].地震学报，2012，34(1)：76-84.(WANG Xiuying，NIU Gaozong，MA Mujun. Application of multiple ground motion factors in earthquake-induced landslide hazard evaluation[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica，2012，34(1)：76-84.(in Chinese))
[45]	TRAVASAROU T，BRAY J D，ABRAHAMSON N A. Empirical attenuation relationship for Arias Intensity[J]. Earthquake engineering and structural dynamics，2003，32(7)：1133-1155.
[46]	李莹甄，殷娜，李小晗.不同震级标度转换关系研究概述[J]. 地震工程学报，2014，36(1)：80-87.(LI Yingzhen，YIN Na，LI Xiaohan. Review of the conversional relationship for different magnitude scales[J]. China Earthquake Engineering Journal，2014，36(1)：80-87.(in Chinese))
[47]	林柏伸，李锡堤. 山崩潜感分析中Arias Intenity的运用[C]// 第十届台湾地区地球物理研讨会暨2003年中国地球物理学会年会，2003：91-96.(LIN Baishen，LI Xidi. Landslide susceptibility analysis by using Arias Intenity[C]//Proceedings of the Tenth Geophysics Seminar Cum the 2003 Taiwan Chinese Geophysical Society Symposium.[S.l.]：[s.n.]，2003：91-96.(in Chinese))
[48]	JIBSON R W. Methods for assessing the stability of slopes during earthquakes—a retrospective[J]. Engineering Geology，2011，122(1)：43-50.
[49]	WIECZOREK G F，WILSON R C，HARP E L. Map showing slope stability during earthquakes in San Mateo County，California[R]. [S.l.]：U.S. Geological Survey，1985.
[50]	JIBSON RW，KEEFER D K. Analysis of the seismic origin of landslides：examples from the New Madrid seismic zone[J]. Geological Society of America Bulletin，1993，105(4)：521-536.
[51]	BLAKE T F，HOLLINGSWORTH R A，STEWART J P. Recommended procedures for implementation of DMG special publication 117—guidelines for analyzing and mitigating landslide hazards in California[M]. Los Angeles：Southern California Earthquake Center，2002：80-82.
[52]	KEEFER D K. Investigating landslide caused by earthquakes—a historical review[J]. Surveys in Geophysics，2002，23(6)：473-510.
[53]	HARP E L，JIBSON R W. Landslides triggered by the 1994 Northridge，California earthquake[J]. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America，1996，86(1B)：319-332.
[54]	KEEFER D K，MANSON M W. Regional distribution and characteristics of landslides generated by the earthquake[C]//.KEEFER DK. The Loma Prieta，California earthquakeof October 17，1989—landslides，US Geol. SurveyUS Geological Survey Professional Paper，1998，1551C：C7-C32.
[55]	JIBSON R W，HARP E L，SCHULZ W，et al. Large rock avalanches triggered by the M-7.9 Denali Fault，Alaska，earthquake of 3 November 2002[J]. Engineering Geology，2006，83(1)：144-160.
[56]	王涛，吴树仁，石菊松，等. 地震滑坡危险性概念和基于力学模型的评估方法探讨[J]. 工程地质学报，2015，23(1)：93-104.(WANG Tao，WU Shuren，SHI Jusong，et al. Concepts and mechanical assessment method for seismic lansdlide hazard：a review[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology，2015，23(1)：93-104.