基于时间概率模型的降雨型滑坡精细化气象预警研究

doi:10.3724/1000-6915.jrme.2024.0805

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摘要基于经验降雨阈值（ERT）的滑坡气象预警模型预警成功率一直较低，而时间概率模型（TPM）有望弥补这一缺陷。为此进行了对比实验。首先采用有效降雨量–降雨持时（EE-D）和当日–前4日有效降雨（R0-AE4）构建了2套TPM模型；使用受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线和相关性系数对ERT/TPM的判别能力及预测能力进行评估；之后耦合滑坡时空概率，提出概率式气象预警模型（P-LEWM）；最后通过模拟预警，与目前基于ERT的矩阵式预警模型（M-LEWM）进行对比，结果显示：（1）R0-AE4型的ERT/TPM对降雨致灾危险性的判别更加准确，ROC曲线下面积相较于EE-D提升了6.8%～12.5%；（2）提出的TPM可以较为准确地预测降雨致灾概率，预测的致灾降雨数量与实际发生数量之间的相关性系数在0.83之上，且EE-D型的TPM对强降雨预测更准，而R0-AE4更适用于常规降雨事件；（3）EE-D型的ERT会低估长持时强降雨的致灾危险性，造成M-LEWM对2018年的2次重点降雨事件的漏报率超过50%，而TPM参与构建的P-LEWM的预警成功率均在90%左右；（4）提出的P-LEWM由于其精确的时间概率模型，以及合理的时空概率耦合方式，显著地提高滑坡气象预警精度，相较于M-LEWM，其预警成功率提升了20.7%至26.0%，合理的预警成功率提升了15.6%至28.6%，而漏报率减少超过20.5%。

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	宋宇飞1
	李祥2
	范文2
	于宁宇2
	曹琰波2
	邓龙胜2
	陶虹3

关键词 ：边坡工程, 降雨型滑坡, 降雨阈值, 时间概率, 早期预警

Abstract：The landslide meteorological early warning model based on empirical rainfall thresholds (ERT) often has a low warning accuracy, and the temporal probability model (TPM) is expected to address this shortcoming. To verify this hypothesis, a comparative experiment was conducted. First, we used accumulated effective rainfall-duration (EE-D) and same-day rainfall plus accumulated effective rainfall over the previous four days (R0-AE4) as variables to construct two sets of TPM models. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and correlation coefficient were then used to evaluate the discriminative and predictive abilities of ERT and TPM. Subsequently, the conditional probability formula was employed to couple the spatiotemporal probability of landslides, resulting in the proposal of a probabilistic landslide meteorological early warning model (P-LEWM). Finally, through simulated warnings, P-LEWM was compared with the matrix-based landslide early warning model (M-LEWM), which was constructed using ERT. The results indicate that: (1) The ERT/TPM constructed with R0-AE4 is more accurate in assessing the hazard level of rainfall-triggered landslides, with the area under the ROC curve increasing by 6.8% to 12.5% compared to EE-D. (2) The TPM proposed in this paper can accurately predict the probability of rainfall-triggered landslides, with a correlation coefficient between the predicted and recorded triggering-rainfall amounts exceeding 0.83. Additionally, the EE-D type TPM is more accurate for heavy rainfall prediction, while R0-AE4 is more suitable for regular rainfall events. (3) The EE-D type ERT tends to underestimate the hazard level of prolonged heavy rainfall in triggering landslides, causing M-LEWM to miss numerous landslides during two typical rainfall events in 2018, with a missed rate exceeding 50%, whereas P-LEWM constructed with TPM achieved a correct alert rate of over 90%. (4) Due to the accurate TPM and a reasonable spatiotemporal model coupling method, the correct alert rate of P-LEWM proposed in this paper has significantly improved compared to M-LEWM. The correct alert rate increased by 20.7% to 26.0%, the reasonable correct alert rate increased by 15.6% to 28.6%, and the missed alert rate decreased by more than 20.5%.

Key words： slope engineering rainfall-induced landslide rainfall threshold temporal probability early warning

引用本文:

宋宇飞1，李祥2，范文2，于宁宇2，曹琰波2，邓龙胜2，陶虹3. 基于时间概率模型的降雨型滑坡精细化气象预警研究[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2025, 44(6): 1553-1568.
SONG Yufei1, LI Xiang2, FAN Wen2, YU Ningyu2, CAO Yanbo2, DENG Longsheng2, TAO Hong3. Refined meteorological early warning for rainfall-induced landslide based on temporal probability model. , 2025, 44(6): 1553-1568.

链接本文:

https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/CN/10.3724/1000-6915.jrme.2024.0805 或 https://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/CN/Y2025/V44/I6/1553

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[28]	PICIULLO L，DAHL M P，DEVOLI G，et al. Adapting the edumap method to test the performance of the norwegian early warning system for weather-induced landslides[J]. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences，2017，17(6)：817-831.
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