Abstract:The research on early warning of gradual-change landslides has made great progress,and early warning and prediction have been realized in many cases. But the early warning and prediction of sudden-onset landslides are still impotent. Focusing on the internal and external response relationship between the stress release from the rupture of the internal rock and soil body and the coordinated deformation of the rock body on the slope surface in the evolution of landslides,we study the characteristics of the dynamic change of the stress-sliding force-deformation in order to obtain the precursor information of sudden-onset landslide destabilization. In the process of landslide from static deformation to dynamic slip,the potential slip surface is initially deteriorated by local rupture,and then accelerated by the rate effect after the overall penetration. Thus a parameter deterioration model considering the local rupture and accelerated deterioration of the slip surface is constructed. Based on the vector sum method,the landslide resistance and decline force are calculated,and a time-dependent degradation mechanical model considering the deterioration of the mechanical parameters of the slip zone is established. The model is used to calculate the force and deformation characteristics of the whole process of landslide formation and evolution,revealing the stage characteristics of stress-slip force-deformation in the process of landslide formation. The results show that landslide stress,slip force and deformation indicators show obvious stage characteristics,which can be divided into initial,isokinetic,accelerated and near-slip stages. When the landslide enters the near-slip stage,the sudden drop in slip resistance and stress is earlier than the rapid increase in landslide deformation,which is helpful for early warning and prediction of sudden-onset landslides.
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