雄安容城深热储层回灌注水诱发断层失稳危险性研究

doi:10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2021.0513

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摘要雄安新区地热资源丰富，未来大规模开发利用深部热储资源对建设绿色雄安、减轻首都圈环境污染、改善京津冀能源结构等具有重要的战略意义。雄安新区内分布容城、牛东及徐水—大城等第四纪隐伏断层，未来开采蓟县—长城系热储时，回灌注水是否会对上述断层稳定性产生影响，目前暂无相关研究成果报道。以雄安容城热储区为例，首先，基于已有地应力数据初步确定容城热储区初始地应力场，依据莫尔–库仑破裂准则研判近场隐伏断层的初始稳定状态；其次，选用Hsieh and Bredehoeft水文模型，计算代表性深地热井未来回灌注水引起的超孔隙水压力分布特征；然后，考虑该超孔隙水压力作用，采用断层滑动失稳概率评价方法，分析不同注水时段近场隐伏断层的滑动失稳危险性；最后，重点探讨注水速率、注水时间以及地热抽采对诱发断层失稳危险性的影响。研究结果表明：(1) 容城凸起边界断层附近约3 km范围内，代表性深地热井在171 m3/h回灌注水条件下，回灌注水40 a产生的超孔隙水压力值不超过12 MPa，且随着距离注水井位置增大向外扩散呈“幂函数”规律逐渐递减，影响范围一般不超过9 km；(2) 回灌注水对容城凸起西边界断层中段(F9–2段)稳定性影响较显著，而对其他隐伏断层的影响不明显；(3) F9–2分段断层的滑动失稳概率随注水时间增长基本呈“指数函数”规律非线性增大，随注水速率增加也呈“指数函数”规律非线性增大，在171 m3/h回灌注水条件下，回灌注水至2070年，F9–2分段断层滑动失稳概率为33.16%，具有较高的失稳风险；(4) 容城凸起边界断层附近深地热井持续抽采能导致储层岩体最小水平主应力降低、最大差应力增大，F9–2分段断层应力积累水平逐渐接近临界失稳状态，未来深部地热持续抽采对近场断层稳定性的影响也应值得关注。

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	朱思雨1
	丰成君1
	2
	谭成轩1
	2
	马晓冬3
	孟静1
	2
	戚帮申1
	2
	张重远1
	2

关键词 ：岩石力学, 地应力, 深部热储层, 回灌注水, 断层滑动概率, 雄安新区

Abstract：Xiong?an New Area is rich in geothermal resources. In the future，large-scale exploitation and utilization of the deep geothermal storage will have important strategic significance for making green Xiong?an，reducing the environmental pollution in Capital Circle region and improve the energy structure of Beijing，Tianjin，and Hebei. There are several buried Quaternary faults in the Xiong?an New Area，such as Rongcheng，Niudong and Xushui—Dacheng faults. For the upcoming exploitation of the Jixian-Changcheng geothermal system，whether water injection will affect the stability of the main buried faults near the reservoir is of critical importance. At present，there has been no report correlations. In this paper，taking the Rongcheng geothermal reservoir as a case study，we firstly investigated the regional in-situ stress field，and then evaluated the initial stability of the main buried faults using the Mohr-Coulomb fracture criteria. Secondly，we calculated the excess pore pressure caused by water rejection at representative deep geothermal wellbores by the Hsieh and Bredehoeft hydrological model. Subsequently，with the modeled excess pore pressure，we estimated the fault slip potential on the main buried faults associated with water injection，based on a probabilistic approach. Finally，we discussed the influence of injection rate，injection time and fluid withdrawal on the mapped fault slip potential. Our results suggest that：(1) The excess pore pressure generated by water injection at the rate of 171 m3/h for 40 years is less than 12 MPa at representative deep geothermal wellbores，within a distance of 3 km near the Rongcheng boundary faults. The excess pore pressure decay shows power law-like behavior to distances of less than 9 km. (2) The stability of the middle segment of the western Rongcheng boundary fault (namely F9–2) is significantly affected by water injection，while this influence on other buried faults is not significant. (3) The fault slip potential on the mapped fault F9–2 increases exponentially with water injection rate as well as with injection time. Projected in 2070，the fault slip potential on the mapped fault F9–2 is 33.16%，indicating a high risk. (4) The continuous pumping in deep geothermal wellbores near the boundary fault of Rongcheng uplift can lead to the decrease of the minimum principal stress and the increase of the maximum differential stress；as a result，the stress accumulation on the mapped fault F9–2 gradually approaches the critical state. Therefore，the effect of upcoming geothermal extraction on the stability of faults nearby warrants great attention.

Key words： rock mechanics in-situ stress deep geothermal reservoir water injection fault slip potential Xiong?an New Area

引用本文:

朱思雨1，丰成君1，2，谭成轩1，2，马晓冬3，孟静1，2，戚帮申1，2，张重远1，2. 雄安容城深热储层回灌注水诱发断层失稳危险性研究[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2022, 41(S1): 2735-2756.
ZHU Siyu1，FENG Chengjun1，2，TAN Chengxuan1，2，MA Xiaodong3，MENG Jing1，2，QI Bangshen1，2，ZHANG Chongyuan1，2. Fault slip potential induced by water injection in the Rongcheng deep-seated geothermal reservoir，Xiong?an New Area. , 2022, 41(S1): 2735-2756.

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http://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/CN/10.13722/j.cnki.jrme.2021.0513 或 http://rockmech.whrsm.ac.cn/CN/Y2022/V41/IS1/2735

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